In November 2018, the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) finally settled on the Withdrawal Agreement and a political declaration for future relations. This now needs to be ratified by parliaments with the first big hurdle due in a vote by the House of Commons in December 2018. The risk of a No-Deal remains. Euromonitor International’s Analytics models contain a range of Brexit scenarios, to help understand the impact on UK consumer goods industries, the economy and consumers.
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Supply chains would be disrupted, if the UK was not able to access the EU Excise Movement & Control System (EMCS). Spirits sales are expected to record a loss of 6.1 million litres from the baseline under a No-Deal Brexit over the forecast period.
A Light/No Brexit will add 23,700 more Social Class B households in Nottingham compared to baseline forecasts over 2017-2022.
The poorest Social Class E would shrink instead of expanding and in 2022 would include 300,100 less individuals compared to the baseline scenario.
A No-Deal Brexit scenario would deteriorate UK business conditions and would increase the unemployment rate to 5.9% in 2022.
Lucozade has the potential to become a US$1.0 billion brand by 2022. However, the category’s income elasticity of 0.64 is high for soft drinks, and considering the current growth momentum, there is a lot to lose from a Brexit-related slowdown.