Most Sub-Saharan cities are forecast to grow fast, in some cases doubling in size (in terms of consumer spending) in just a decade. However, even with such fast-paced growth they will still remain modest consumer markets by any developed market standards. At the same time, the region‘s most-developed and high-income consumer markets will remain concentrated in Israel and the Gulf area.
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Tel Aviv is the region‘s top city by GDP, share of population by higher education, and number of high income households. Other cities in Israel are smaller but similarly well performing.
A few Middle East cities stand out as affluent and significant consumer markets of the region. However, by any standards, a huge share of population in Saudi Arabian and Gulf cities are immigrants, often living without their families. This disproportionately boosts male and working-age populations in the cities, correspondingly shaping consumer markets.
Urban population in Sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 40% to 47% of total population in just over a decade. This implies particularly rapid growth for the area’s key cities, as some (eg Luanda, Dar es Salaam, Kampala) are expected to grow by 60% or more.
Apart from population growth, some economies in Sub-Saharan Africa are also expected to post strong economic growth - such as Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya, which are expected to at least double their GDP by 2030. Correspondingly, economic growth will be driven by major cities in the latter countries, and consumer market size growth is expected to follow. However, even with such rapid growth, total consumer spending will remain at around USD20 billion in 2030 (at constant value terms) in the fastest growing city, making them comparable to second- or third-tier markets in the advanced economies.