Retailing in Guatemala

Retailing in Guatemala

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on retailing

COVID-19 country impact

Rapidly changing demographics continue to hold out opportunity in 2020

Modern retail infrastructure pushes outside Guatemala City

What next for retailing?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Informal retailing

Opening hours

Summary 1 Standard Opening Hours by Channel Type 2019

Physical retail landscape

Cash and carry

Seasonality

Bono 14
Mother’s Day
Christmas
Back to School

Payments and delivery

Emerging business models

MARKET DATA

Table 1 Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: Value 2015-2020
Table 2 Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 3 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 4 Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 5 Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 6 Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 7 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 8 Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 9 Non-Grocery Specialists: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 10 Non-Grocery Specialists: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 11 Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 12 Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 13 Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 14 Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 15 Retailing GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 16 Retailing GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 17 Store-based Retailing GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 18 Store-based Retailing GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 19 Store-based Retailing LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 20 Non-Store Retailing GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 21 Non-Store Retailing GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 22 Non-Grocery Specialists GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 23 Non-Grocery Specialists GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 24 Non-Grocery Specialists LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 25 Non-Grocery Specialists LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 26 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: Value 2020-2025
Table 27 Forecast Sales in Retailing by Store-based vs Non-Store: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 28 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 29 Forecast Sales in Store-Based Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 30 Forecast Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 31 Forecast Store-Based Retailing Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025
Table 32 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 33 Forecast Sales in Non-Store Retailing by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 34 Non-Grocery Specialists Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 35 Non-Grocery Specialists Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 36 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 37 Forecast Sales in Non-Grocery Specialists by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 38 Forecast Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 39 Forecast Non-Grocery Specialists Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025

DISCLAIMER

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

SOURCES

Summary 2 Research Sources

Modern Grocery Retailers in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Stronger growth opportunity thwarted by immaturity of channel

Modern grocery hit by supply line problems, panic buying

Pricing becomes key purchase trigger, thanks to virus-driven economic contraction

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Momentum will be rebuilt with economic recovery and outlet expansion

Convenience-facing formats and targeted consumer bases can see strong growth

Flexibility could bring rewards in informal retail environment

CHANNEL DATA

Table 40 Modern Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 41 Modern Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 42 Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 43 Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 44 Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 45 Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 46 Modern Grocery Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 47 Modern Grocery Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 48 Modern Grocery Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 49 Modern Grocery Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 50 Modern Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 51 Modern Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 52 Forecast Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 53 Forecast Sales in Modern Grocery Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 54 Forecast Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 55 Forecast Modern Grocery Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025

Traditional Grocery Retailers in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Lack of growth a result of virus impact on traditional consumer base incomes

Pandemic sees lower income consumers step away from traditional formats

Transport and movement restrictions hurt hub-based traditional retailers

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Essential status of traditional retailers for many consumers to support ongoing growth

Adoption of cash alternatives can widen consumer base

Innovation and improved service offer will make traditional grocery more competitive

CHANNEL DATA

Table 56 Traditional Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 57 Traditional Grocery Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 58 Traditional Grocery Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 59 Traditional Grocery Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 60 Traditional Grocery Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 61 Traditional Grocery Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 62 Traditional Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 63 Traditional Grocery Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025

Apparel and Footwear Specialist Retailers in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Store shutdowns, falling incomes and lack of necessity for new see sales collapse

Proactive retailers offset physical limitations, but with limited affect

Premium sales hit by additional channel restrictions and travel bans

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Demographic shifts drive sales in multiple ways

Growth from new outlets, as international players perceive opportunity in Guatemala

Price positions will still be key trigger for most Guatemalans

CHANNEL DATA

Table 64 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 65 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 66 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 67 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 68 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 69 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 70 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 71 Apparel And Footwear Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025

Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Virus polarises performance within health and beauty specialists

Vitamin and dietary supplement sales hampered by store model

Lack of professional input limits potential of stronger growth

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Positive consumption trends to return quickly

Health and beauty specialists who add service and value will benefit from differentiation

Strengthening demand at top end of channel

CHANNEL DATA

Table 72 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 73 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 74 Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 75 Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 76 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 77 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 78 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 79 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 80 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 81 Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 82 Forecast Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 83 Forecast Sales in Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Mixed Retailers in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Department stores struggle most with implications of virus

Warehouse clubs thrive as consumers seek economy in pandemic

Virus pushes mixed retailers to develop new sales models

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Variety stores offer opportunity, thanks to ease of expansion and pricing proposition

Warehouse clubs face challenge from multiple directions

Department store growth in parallel with economic recovery, demographic shift

CHANNEL DATA

Table 84 Mixed Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2015-2020
Table 85 Mixed Retailers: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2015-2020
Table 86 Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: Value 2015-2020
Table 87 Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 88 Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2015-2020
Table 89 Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2015-2020
Table 90 Mixed Retailers GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 91 Mixed Retailers GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 92 Mixed Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Outlets 2017-2020
Table 93 Mixed Retailers LBN Brand Shares: Selling Space 2017-2020
Table 94 Mixed Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space 2020-2025
Table 95 Mixed Retailers Forecasts: Value Sales, Outlets and Selling Space: % Growth 2020-2025
Table 96 Forecast Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: Value 2020-2025
Table 97 Forecast Sales in Mixed Retailers by Channel: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 98 Forecast Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: Units 2020-2025
Table 99 Forecast Mixed Retailers Outlets by Channel: % Unit Growth 2020-2025

Direct Selling in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Virus-led drop in demand for beauty and personal care hits direct selling

Pandemic management restricts operation of sales model

Recruitment, investment, product development put on hold in 2020

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Recovery depends wholly on return to pre-pandemic lives and underlying trends

Direct selling under threat from other channels, but can adapt and differentiate

New workplaces may offer opportunity beyond domestic face-to-face sales

CHANNEL DATA

Table 100 Direct Selling by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 101 Direct Selling by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 102 Direct Selling GBO Company Shares: % Value 2016-2020
Table 103 Direct Selling GBN Brand Shares: % Value 2017-2020
Table 104 Direct Selling Forecasts by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 105 Direct Selling Forecasts by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

E-Commerce in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Strong growth driven by pandemic response

Weak infrastructure limits performance, but retailers innovate

COVID-19 drives marked shift in consumer attitudes to e-commerce

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Local players beginning to dip toes in e-commerce

Cash culture remains barrier, but opportunity for flexible payment systems

Parallel development of competing courier services can improve perception

CHANNEL DATA

Table 106 E-Commerce by Channel and Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 107 E-Commerce by Channel and Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 108 Forecast E-Commerce by Channel and Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 109 Forecast E-Commerce by Channel and Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Mobile E-Commerce in Guatemala

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

High growth from low base

Payment operators look to enfranchise more consumers

Social media spike in pandemic brings more consumers to e-commerce

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Escalating take up in smartphones and new digital natives to drive growth over the forecast period

Strong opportunity for retailers that can solve payment conundrum

Trust in channel set to rise alongside growth in use of service providing apps

CHANNEL DATA

Table 110 Mobile E-Commerce: Value 2015-2020
Table 111 Mobile E-Commerce: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 112 Mobile E-Commerce Forecasts: Value 2020-2025
Table 113 Mobile E-Commerce Forecasts: % Value Growth 2020-2025

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