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Strategy Briefing

Soft Drinks Quarterly Briefing Q4 2017

27 pages, Dec 2017

US$1,325

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The soft drinks industry enters the last two months of 2017 with an improving outlook in Western Europe, China and India. Natural disasters in Mexico and a newly imposed soda tax in Saudi Arabia have had a negative impact on the quarterly forecast, while Nestlé and Coca-Cola are both involved in targeted brand acquisitions this quarter.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Global soft drinks growth stable in Q4

The global soft drinks industry remains close to baseline forecasts in terms of overall CAGR, as positive growth in Europe and emerging Asia offsets weakness in the Middle East, Nigeria and Latin America. M&A activity takes the form of manufacturer investments in smaller, high growth emerging brands in RTD coffee and mineral water.

India is an innovation focus in 2018

Economic prospects in India continue to improve, leading to upgrades in 5-year forecasts across beverage categories. Global soft drinks leader Coca-Cola reported strong Indian volume growth this quarter, and announced plans for more incorporation of locally produced fruits and flavours in future Indian brand launches.

Downgrades in Mexico may be understated

Weaker income (GDP per capita) growth in Mexico has a corresponding impact on the outlook for soft drinks in Mexico, although major manufacturers, including PepsiCo and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, report deeper disruptions caused by the aftermath of Hurricane Katia and two major earthquakes.

A German recovery benefits premium brands

The German economy continues to outperform other major developed economies, leading to upgrades in the outlook for the soft drinks industry. Income sensitive categories in premium, healthier drinks (brewed beverages and super-premium juices) are likely to emerge as the main winners.

The Saudi soda tax comes down hard

A steep tax on carbonated soft drinks and energy drinks darkens the growth prospects for the Saudi beverage market, compounding the effects of a weaker consumer economy since the baseline January forecast.

E-commerce driving a rosier Chinese outlook

The Chinese economy continues to improve after some uncertainty earlier in the year. PepsiCo and other beverage leaders report recent strong channel growth in internet retailing of drinks, and are targeting new product launches for m-commerce.

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Q4 Macroeconomic Update

Scope

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts: revisions over last quarter

Global Risk Scenarios

Major macro risks for the soft drinks industry

Q4 in Soft Drinks

Key findings

Updated quarterly forecast: Europe and Asia fail to offset MEA declines

Upgrade in Indian soft drinks as Coca-Cola reports positive performance

Strong growth expected in per capita spending on fruit CSDs and juice

GDP downgrade and natural disasters threaten growth in Mexico

German incomes growth creates interest in premium beverage brands

Growth in income and Gen Y fuels improvement in German energy drinks

Modest upgrade in China as manufacturers focus on e-commerce growth

Downgrade in Saudi Arabia as new excise tax takes effect

Modelling the possible impact of the Saudi tax hike on orange carbonates

US refranchising concludes for Coca-Cola as high growth brands change hands

Conclusion: what’s changed this quarter in soft drinks?

Long term: price and soft drivers are the main threats

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Soft Drinks Quarterly Briefing Q4 2017

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Global soft drinks growth stable in Q4

India is an innovation focus in 2018

Downgrades in Mexico may be understated

A German recovery benefits premium brands

The Saudi soda tax comes down hard

E-commerce driving a rosier Chinese outlook

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Q4 Macroeconomic Update

Scope

Executive Summary

GDP Forecasts: revisions over last quarter

Global Risk Scenarios

Major macro risks for the soft drinks industry

Q4 in Soft Drinks

Key findings

Updated quarterly forecast: Europe and Asia fail to offset MEA declines

Upgrade in Indian soft drinks as Coca-Cola reports positive performance

Strong growth expected in per capita spending on fruit CSDs and juice

GDP downgrade and natural disasters threaten growth in Mexico

German incomes growth creates interest in premium beverage brands

Growth in income and Gen Y fuels improvement in German energy drinks

Modest upgrade in China as manufacturers focus on e-commerce growth

Downgrade in Saudi Arabia as new excise tax takes effect

Modelling the possible impact of the Saudi tax hike on orange carbonates

US refranchising concludes for Coca-Cola as high growth brands change hands

Conclusion: what’s changed this quarter in soft drinks?

Long term: price and soft drivers are the main threats

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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