For a third consecutive quarter, volume growth prospects in global soft drinks have been downgraded. This is primarily the result of weak GDP growth in the largest developed soft drinks markets. Brazil, Mexico and the US were major areas of volume decline in absolute terms. Nevertheless, Q4 marks a busy quarter of acquisition and consolidation as operators seek to maximize the pockets of opportunity in enhanced water and RTD tea.
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Donald Trump’s surprise victory has significantly raised uncertainty levels and worsened the outlook for the US economy. We have downgraded our baseline forecast to 0.4% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018.
After Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we have lowered the Eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. The outlook for 2016 is almost unchanged.
After the revision in light of the US election results and the newest Brexit-related developments, our baseline forecasts are 0.3% real GDP growth in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.
Japan’s economy shows no signs of acceleration so far, with GDP growth hovering close to zero. We have maintained our GDP forecasts unchanged at 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.
We have revised our GDP growth forecast for China upwards to 6.7% in 2016 and to 6% in 2017. The effect of improving domestic conditions was cancelled out by the US election’s uncertainty shock.
Brazil’s economy is finally starting to show signs of life after several quarters in the doldrums. As a result, we have lifted our GDP forecast to -3.2% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.
The economic downturn in Russia continued to slow. In our baseline, by the end of 2016, real GDP will decrease by around 0.8%. In 2017, we expect real GDP to grow by about 0.9%.
The economy of India continues to be a leader among its peer emerging markets. We forecast growth to reach 7.5% in 2016, 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018.