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Strategy Briefing

Soft Drinks: Quarterly Statement Q4 2016

24 pages, Nov 2016

US$1,325

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For a third consecutive quarter, volume growth prospects in global soft drinks have been downgraded. This is primarily the result of weak GDP growth in the largest developed soft drinks markets. Brazil, Mexico and the US were major areas of volume decline in absolute terms. Nevertheless, Q4 marks a busy quarter of acquisition and consolidation as operators seek to maximize the pockets of opportunity in enhanced water and RTD tea.

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Overview

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GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

US

Donald Trump’s surprise victory has significantly raised uncertainty levels and worsened the outlook for the US economy. We have downgraded our baseline forecast to 0.4% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018.

Eurozone

After Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we have lowered the Eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. The outlook for 2016 is almost unchanged.

UK

After the revision in light of the US election results and the newest Brexit-related developments, our baseline forecasts are 0.3% real GDP growth in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018.

Japan

Japan’s economy shows no signs of acceleration so far, with GDP growth hovering close to zero. We have maintained our GDP forecasts unchanged at 0.5% in 2016 and 0.7% in 2017.

China

We have revised our GDP growth forecast for China upwards to 6.7% in 2016 and to 6% in 2017. The effect of improving domestic conditions was cancelled out by the US election’s uncertainty shock.

Brazil

Brazil’s economy is finally starting to show signs of life after several quarters in the doldrums. As a result, we have lifted our GDP forecast to -3.2% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.

Russia

The economic downturn in Russia continued to slow. In our baseline, by the end of 2016, real GDP will decrease by around 0.8%. In 2017, we expect real GDP to grow by about 0.9%.

India

The economy of India continues to be a leader among its peer emerging markets. We forecast growth to reach 7.5% in 2016, 7.7% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018.

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Overview

Main stories in Q4

Executive summary

GDP forecasts - revisions over last quarter

Q4 Forecast and Industry Developments

Q4 forecast explained

Weaker growth expected in global soft drinks

Weakness across the largest soft drinks markets

Global CSD giants most exposed to developed market downgrades

What sort of growth strategies are we seeing in this environment?

Slow US GDP growth and uncertainty dims the global outlook

New soda and sugar taxes may also impact US volume growth

Achieving US growth through targeted acquisitions

Premium water brands report Q4 success in Mexico

Premium water brands outperform for Nestlé and Danone

Despite weak GDP growth, consumer trends lift soft drinks in Japan

Consolidation of beverage operations in Japan benefits NPD

Capitalising on volume growth opportunities in India

New taxation and regulation complicate opportunities in India

Threats to the soft drinks industry over 2015-2020

About Our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Soft Drinks: Quarterly Statement Q4 2016

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

GDP GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS

US

Eurozone

UK

Japan

China

Brazil

Russia

India

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Main stories in Q4

Executive summary

GDP forecasts - revisions over last quarter

Q4 Forecast and Industry Developments

Q4 forecast explained

Weaker growth expected in global soft drinks

Weakness across the largest soft drinks markets

Global CSD giants most exposed to developed market downgrades

What sort of growth strategies are we seeing in this environment?

Slow US GDP growth and uncertainty dims the global outlook

New soda and sugar taxes may also impact US volume growth

Achieving US growth through targeted acquisitions

Premium water brands report Q4 success in Mexico

Premium water brands outperform for Nestlé and Danone

Despite weak GDP growth, consumer trends lift soft drinks in Japan

Consolidation of beverage operations in Japan benefits NPD

Capitalising on volume growth opportunities in India

New taxation and regulation complicate opportunities in India

Threats to the soft drinks industry over 2015-2020

About Our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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