Spirits in Belarus

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Rising income levels support premiumisation

The steady development of the economy of Belarus in recent years has led to the emergence of a sizeable and affluent urban middle-class, many of whom are very interested in a wide range of different types of spirits outside of the traditionally dominant category of vodka, which is struggling to maintain consumer demand in the face of stronger competition. As income levels have risen, local consumers have become increasingly interested in premium brands in spirits categories such as whiskies, rum and tequila (and mezcal), among others.

Vodka a saturated category in which demand remains tied to traditional consumption

Vodka remains by far the most important category of spirits in Belarus, with category accounting for the majority of total spirits volume sales in 2019. Competition in vodka remains quite saturated, with mainly local players present.

Frequent new product development ensures a consistent and dynamic performance

Spirits is a category that is subject to frequent new product developments and this has been one of the main factors behind the category’s dynamic performance in recent years. In the largest category of vodka for instance, 2019 saw Bulbash launch Black Pearle, a vodka filtered through black pearl, while Naliboki Lnianaya with linen extract was launched by leading player Minski Zavod Vinogradnyh.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

On-trade volume sales of spirits are expected to fall by 25% in 2020 in light of the impact of COVID-19. This compares very unfavourably with an expected 1% rise forecast for 2020 during research conducted in May 2019, ie before the spread of COVID-19.

Affected products within spirits

Categories that are regarded as unnecessary luxuries experienced the strongest declines in demand due to COVID-19 over the first half of 2020. These categories include Canadian whisky, bourbon/other US whiskey and cream-based liqueurs, all categories in which sales are dominated by imported products.

Recovery and opportunities

By the end of the forecast period, on-trade volume sales of spirits are expected to have recovered fully from the significant declines that are expected to be seen in the category over the course of 2020 due to the COVID-19 situation. However, off-trade sales are expected to remain under pressure due to lingering economic uncertainty.

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