Staple Foods: Half-Year Update H1 2022

June 2022

This half-year review of Euromonitor International’s Staple Foods data provides analysis of the biannual update to Euromonitor’s Forecast Model (FM), alongside the quarterly update to the Macro Model, offering insight into the most important developments in staple foods since October 2021’s annual update. Inflationary pressures and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are bearing down hard across many key markets, and retail sales values have increased significantly as a result.

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Key findings

Staple foods impacted by a surge in inflation…

Staple foods have come under intense pressure from inflation. COVID-19-related restrictions on shipping and transportation facilities, shortages of workers in the supply chain, the recovery in global demand and energy price increases have caused production costs of most staple foods to rise significantly.

…with key wheat-based categories significantly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation. Russia and Ukraine together export more than a quarter of the world’s wheat, thus the war has particularly hits baked goods (especially bread), pasta, noodles and breakfast cereals. In addition, the invasion has driven energy and commodity prices further upwards.

Processed meat is also feeling the effects

In addition to the factors already noted, rising agricultural input costs, particularly animal feed, are impacting processed meat. Higher prices for fertiliser (necessary to grow the crops that feed livestock) brings the invasion’s effects in here too. Russia is the global leader in nitrogen fertiliser exports, and second globally in phosphorus and potassium fertilisers.

Plant-based meat slows down in the US

2021 saw a slowdown in plant-based meat sales in the US (a trend which was not reflected across all plant-based foods); however, 2021’s figures came against an inflated comparison and were still higher than in 2019. Going forward, a key factor in growth will be the fact that price-parity (meat to plant-based meat) continues to inch closer.

The in- vs out-of-home eating relationship is continuing to evolve

A legacy of the pandemic is increased working from home. Many workplaces have embraced hybrid working models. Consumers previously travelling to a workplace five days a week may now be doing so for two or three days, with all the implications for eating choices which that entails. In addition, rising costs push food choices towards retail and away from foodservice.

Introduction

Scope
About this briefing
Key findings

Staple Foods: half-year update

Updated data show surging value sales of staple foods
The many layers of global inflation
Industry impact: Rising food commodity prices
Inflationary pressure bearing down hard on staple foods industry
Substantial upgrades to staple foods value sales across markets
Baked goods sales value rises with wheat in the firing line
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has a global impact
Grupo Bimbo to continue to increase prices
Processed meat price rises drive sales value upgrades
Bernard Matthews/2 Sisters Food warn of “a reset” in poultry
Pasta and noodles also see prices surge
The continued evolution of in-home eating
Squeeze on spending also favours retail over foodservice
Plant-based meat in the US sees sales slow down
US plant-based malaise has not spread beyond meat
“A steadier yet still attractive pace” for plant-based meat
Key takeaways from this half-year review

Macroeconomic Update

Slower economic growth and substantial inflation increases amid rising uncertainty

Q2 2022 Macroeconomic Update

Supply chain problems and rising energy prices drive producer price growth
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter

About our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model (1)
About Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model (2)
About Euromonitor International’s Macro Model
Data and reporting timeline: Staple Foods
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