This half-year review of Euromonitor International’s Staple Foods data provides analysis of the biannual update to Euromonitor’s Forecast Model (FM), alongside the quarterly update to the Macro Model, offering insight into the most important developments in staple foods since October 2021’s annual update. Inflationary pressures and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are bearing down hard across many key markets, and retail sales values have increased significantly as a result.
Staple foods have come under intense pressure from inflation. COVID-19-related restrictions on shipping and transportation facilities, shortages of workers in the supply chain, the recovery in global demand and energy price increases have caused production costs of most staple foods to rise significantly.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation. Russia and Ukraine together export more than a quarter of the world’s wheat, thus the war has particularly hits baked goods (especially bread), pasta, noodles and breakfast cereals. In addition, the invasion has driven energy and commodity prices further upwards.
In addition to the factors already noted, rising agricultural input costs, particularly animal feed, are impacting processed meat. Higher prices for fertiliser (necessary to grow the crops that feed livestock) brings the invasion’s effects in here too. Russia is the global leader in nitrogen fertiliser exports, and second globally in phosphorus and potassium fertilisers.
2021 saw a slowdown in plant-based meat sales in the US (a trend which was not reflected across all plant-based foods); however, 2021’s figures came against an inflated comparison and were still higher than in 2019. Going forward, a key factor in growth will be the fact that price-parity (meat to plant-based meat) continues to inch closer.
A legacy of the pandemic is increased working from home. Many workplaces have embraced hybrid working models. Consumers previously travelling to a workplace five days a week may now be doing so for two or three days, with all the implications for eating choices which that entails. In addition, rising costs push food choices towards retail and away from foodservice.
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