The Coronavirus Basket in Consumer Health: A Framework for Future Growth

Key Findings

The “COVID-19 basket” of consumer health products boomed during peak stockpiling period

With the peak of COVID-19-induced purchasing under our belts, it is clear that some consumer health categories performed quite a bit better than the industry as a whole; we are calling this group of products the “COVID-19 basket”. These categories clustered across pain relievers, cough/cold medication, immunity products, and general health, as consumers prioritised products that could protect against the symptoms of COVID-19 and promote healthy living.

Within the COVID-19 basket, acetaminophen and vitamin C sales saw the strongest growth

Even though the COVID-19 basket performed starkly better than other consumer health products, there was still a noticeable difference in sales among categories in the COVID-19 basket as well. Acetaminophen and vitamin C have seen unparalleled growth since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, well above any other product in the basket.

The rise of the COVID-19 basket will likely influence competitive balance in 2020

The strong growth of the COVID-19 basket in March-April 2020 will likely alter the consumer health competitive landscape for the remainder of 2020. Companies overweighted in immunity and general health will likely do better in Asia Pacific, while companies strong in pain and cough/cold have solid support in Western Europe.

The impending economic recession will not limit the growth of the COVID-19 basket on its own

The COVID-19 basket contains a number of categories that are significantly income inelastic, meaning that the expected economic recession for the rest of the year will not inhibit consumers’ ability to pay for these products and won’t by itself reverse the gains already made during the COVID-19 peak in March 2020, though we expect a short-term snapback after the peak in infections recedes.

Look for future peaks to resemble the March peak without hitting the same heights

Without a vaccine, COVID-19 is likely to peak again at different periods in the near future. There is a good chance that consumer behaviour will be consistent with March 2020, though it is improbable that it will reach the peaks from earlier this year due to prior waves of stockpiling and broader consumer understanding of the virus.