The Impact of Coronavirus on FMCG and Service Sectors in Russia

June 2020

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has heavily impacted many sectors of the economy. Increasing product prices, intensifying unemployment and weakening disposable income have encouraged conscious consumption. Consumers’ interest is centred around personal health and home due to lockdown restrictions. Limitations on out-of-home entertainment and physical retail and services have made consumers rely on e-commerce and digital services.

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Key findings

Economic downturn signals challenging future

COVID-19 pandemic heavily hit in Q1 2020 but it was not the only challenge Russia has experienced. Local currency devaluation due to the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after the failed OPEC deal at the beginning of March, has worsened the situation. Consumer prices are expected to increase due to raw material costs and foreign trade disruption as well as growing unemployment rates which will weaken consumers’ disposable income. Consequently, many sectors of the economy are suffering from decreasing purchasing power.

COVID-19 lifestyle is changing consumption habits

The pandemic has heavily focused the attention of consumers around personal health and home due to lockdown restrictions. Personal health and wellbeing importance was already in the spotlight pre-COVID-19, thus, with current threats, this trend is expected to evolve. Stay-at-home and self-isolation policies are foreseen to have an irreversible impact on how consumers view their living spaces in the long term. Out-of-home entertainment and services are the ones losing the most from the trend shift, while the products and services aimed to make the living space more convenient are benefiting from COVID-19’s impact.

E-commerce benefiting from crisis

With various restrictions on physical retail and services as well as challenges, connected with leaving the home space, many consumers rely on e-commerce as the main means of goods’ consumption. An outperforming demand has encouraged business to respond accordingly and diversify. Many are setting up new logistical solutions, foodservice players are compensating by delivering groceries and other service providers are tapping into home delivery.

Scope
Key findings
Challenging economic environment worsened by pandemic
GDP growth in Russia will turn negative under each C19 scenario
Negative outlook as the government is pushing for more restrictions
Downtrading and lost occasions
Potential growth for e-commerce channel
Apparel and footwear market severely hit by COVID-19
Retailers seek new solutions
COVID-19 pandemic to accelerate growth of hand care products
E-commerce and large-format grocery stores will benefit
Short-term demand prior to facing another drop
Technological advancements contributing to growth in crisis
Pandemic forces Russian consumer foodservice in to desperate situation
Foodservice delivery growth will not compensate losses
Consumer health in Russia remains stable
V itamins and dietary supplements likely to see sales boost
Surface care to lead growth in 2020
Retail tissue benefiting from panic buying in 2020 due to COVID-19
Retail capitali s es on lost horeca and B2B sales , e-commerce on the rise
Hot drinks to see growing demand in 2020
Bottled water is of growing demand for home consumption
Revitalising traditions: rushing for baking and cooking ingredients
Old habits revive easily: trading down for economic options
Time, place and occasion: bringing online shopping up to date
Short-term grocery increase versus significant decline of non-grocery
Current situation is true disruptor for e-commerce in Russia
Domestic tourism starts recovery first
Airlines suffer one of the biggest hits from COVID-19
Video games: a driving force of affordable hometainment
E-sports arrive in time to compensate for traditional sports
What changes to expect in 2020 and beyond?

Retailing

Retail is the sale of new and used goods to consumers from a business for personal or household consumption from retail outlets, kiosks, market stalls, vending, direct selling and e-commerce. Retail is the aggregation of Retail Offline and Retail E-Commerce. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts. Also excludes fuel sales, foodservice sales, rental transactions, and wholesale sales (e.g. Cash and Carry). Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retail also excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, i.e. retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer that is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retail.

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