The Impact of Coronavirus on Packaging

June 2020

This report examines Euromonitor International’s review of the early impact and short-term outlook of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the global consumer packaging industry.

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Key Findings

Hygiene aspect of packaging is in high demand; packaging resilient in supply amid logistic hurdles

Packaging’s intrinsic role to protect and deliver safely to consumers has never been more true than during this health pandemic. With physical distancing and concern about minimising human contact on groceries, to reduce virus spread, packaging imparts safety. The industry proves resilient in meeting stockpiling peaks while navigating its own logistic obstacles, to include explaining its critical place in the supply chain, notably as countries apply movement restrictions.

Pandemic packaging imbalance: retail food, drink and hygiene secure as foodservice shuts down

Retail packaging has come to the fore as consumers spend more time at home due to distancing measures and out-of-home restrictions. Food and home care packaging is up, across pack materials, but led by flexibles; on-trade and specialist retail closure is harmful to keg and glass business, some recoup for glass evidenced by surge in retail beer and wine sales; innovation also to combat losses by pivoting to DTC models.

At-home infrequent shopper forgoes impulse to upsize and buy online; value for money will be increasingly sought

As occasions move into the home, impulse buys are down as consumers opt for at-home-friendly larger sizes and multipacks. E-commerce supports the upsizing trend with convenience of home delivery that further confers safety as consumers seek to minimise physical contact, per public health guidance. This retail shift is likely to entrench, beyond COVID-19, an opportunity for e-commerce-ready packaging. Affordability is to inevitably become more a feature in product/pack offering as consumers negotiate the economic fallout.

COVID-19 pause on sustainability but still on corporate and government agenda

Sustainability, the core influencer of the packaging industry in recent years, has, in the immediate term, been usurped by the coronavirus health emergency, as primary attention is necessarily on safety and supply. Headway will continue as government targets largely remain intact and as corporate progress to reduce waste and emissions, to improve recovery, recyclability, recycling, re-emerges.

Scope
Key findings
Packaging and COVID-19
Global economy will contract sharply in 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic impacts both supply and demand
In our baseline view, the pandemic peaks in June 2020
Three scenarios examine the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios
Fiscal stimulus a challenge with restrictions on expenditure
How are governments trying to mitigate the downturn?
What could alleviate the economic effects of the pandemic?
What could exacerbate the economic impact of the pandemic?
Packaging’s primary role in focus: The safe supply of grocery essentials
Further nuances of short-term view of COVID-19 on packaging supply
COVID-19 impact at a glance (1)
COVID-19 impact at a glance (2)
COVID-19 impact at a glance (3)
Packaging impact varies by industry; food essentials favour flexibles
Routes to disruption
Packaging provides constancy and safety amid economic uncertainty
Supply: packaging largely resilient in meeting spikes in brand demand
Some hurdles: need to clarify “essential” role; ethanol for inks; recycling
Channel: infrequent shopping and distancing supports e-commerce
The 5-step consumer progression of COVID-19 for packaging
Pandemic-altering behaviour sees grocery packaging rise, plastic too
Food packaging: rise of pantry-friendly pack staples
Food gets bigger and foodservice helps fill empty supermarket shelves
Alcohol on-trade loss weighs heavy on glass and kegs but all is not lost
Surge in impulse soft drinks stalls; the large multi-serve returns?
Multipacks, another bulk-buy solution for the planned shop
Discretionary difficulties for beauty; hygiene gives home care a boost
COVID-19 seclusion sees rise of the delivery box and return of the milkman
Tourism and event embargoes bring beverage, beauty and snack losses
2008 crisis thinking vs COVID-19: some category and pack parallels
2008 crisis thinking: packaging largely resilient in adapting to brand need
Packaging industry shows resilience in essential supply to brands
It is safety over sustainability, short-term, but sustainability to prevail
Packagers repurpose production for PPE and sanitisers
Outlook for packaging under COVID-19
About Euromonitor International’s Macro Model
About Via Pricing from Euromonitor International
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