The Power of Proximity: The Complex Story of 21st Century Cities

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Oct 2011

The story of the city is the story of humanity. Cities are made up of people, not buildings. The past decades have seen rapid urbanisation and, for the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population now live in cities. Urbanisation has been driven by growing affluence and a rising middle class. This report looks at the issues facing the affluent, rising and emerging middle classes and their role as consumers and the drivers of future city growth.

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The Power of Proximity: The Complex Story of 21st Century Cities

What this report includes

  • Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
  • Consumer insight
  • Impact across all relevant consumer markets
  • Unique graphics and case studies
  • Key market snapshots
  • Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings
     

Why buy this report

  • Identify factors driving change now and in the future
  • Understand motivation
  • Forward-looking outlook
  • Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
  • Take a step back from micro trends
  • Get up to date estimates and comment

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The Power of Proximity: The Complex Story of 21st Century Cities

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

History of the city
Table 1 World Population 1800-2050
Chart 1 Urban/Rural Population by Region 2010
21st century cities and urban living

THE RISE OF THE MEGACITY

Table 2 Population of the World’s Megacities 2010
21st century cities
Shifts in global power
Chart 2 Changes in GDP Growth by Decade, by Region 1980-2020
Rise of the middle cities
Super-cities
Competition or collaboration
Tension between excitement and safety

THE STORY OF CITIES IS MULTI-FACETED

Mature, rising and emerging cities
Summary 1 Mature, Rising and Emerging Cities
Mature cities: rural dreams, novelty and the cost of change
London as a brand
Detroit and the rust belt
Rising cities: crucible of growth
Chart 3 Average Age of BRIC Population 1980-2020
Chengdu
Dubai
Emerging cities: rapid transformation
Dhaka
Ulan Bator

THE ENGINE OF THE FUTURE: ECONOMICS OF THE CITY

Global and regional growth rates
Chart 4 GDP PPP Per Capita vs % Urban Population 2010
Rising middle class
Table 3 Middle Class Growth by Region 1990/2005
Chart 5 The Rise Of The Middle Class Consumer: Income Concentration Per Adult by Decile, Major Markets 2010
Chart 6 Consumer Expenditure on Food and Housing as % Total Spending, Major Markets 2010
Income inequalities
Chart 7 Gini Index, Major Markets 2010
Housing pressure
Chart 8 Proportion of Single-person Households, Major Markets 2010
4.5 The world is getting older
Chart 9 Age Profiles by Dependency, Major Markets 2010
Healthy, wealthy and wise

BLOWBACK: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGE

Managing high expectations
Middle class unrest?
Migration and fears of the “outsider”
Chart 10 Net Migration, Major Markets 2010
Table 4 Remittances: Inflows and Outflows, Major Markets 2009 and 2010
Terror needs a city

THE HUMAN ZOO: SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF URBAN LIVING

Chart 11 Paradoxes of City Living: City living creates complex social questions
Demographic difference
Chart 12 Unemployment Rate Among 15-25 Year-olds, Major Markets 2010
Identity creation and happiness management
Fortress or cocoon?
Standing out or fitting in? Liquid status
Health, wellbeing and life expectancy
From sprawl to “hive”

CITIES IN THE AGE OF NETWORKS - THE IMPORTANCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE

Electro-reliance and power
Water forces
Sustainable urban living
Transport

THE CONNECTED CITY

Chart 13 Mobile Phone Subscribers and Internet Users, by Selected Markets 2009/2010
The global village of the internet
Chart 14 PC, Internet and Broadband Penetration, Major Markets 2010
Accelerated by mobile phones
Chart 15 Mobile Phones Per Capita, Major Markets 2010
Crowds, clouds and dependency
Reinforced by traditional media
Technology’s “spiky” world

IMPACT ON CONSUMER MARKETS - PATTERNS OF CHANGE

Marketing and brand evolution
Summary 2 Mature, Rising and Emerging Cities
Shopping gets even more social
Shop the world
Retailing plans
Supporting dreams through consumption
Buying time - the continuing rise of convenience

URBANISATION PATTERNS IN MAJOR MARKETS

BRAZIL

Table 5 Brazil: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Chart 16 Population of Brazil’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

CHINA

Table 6 China: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Will China get rich before it gets old?
Chart 17 Population of China’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015
Rise of middle-tier cities

EGYPT

Table 7 Egypt: Population and Spending 1990-2020
The Arab Spring
Chart 18 Population of Egypt’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

INDIA

Table 8 India: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Poised for global growth
Chart 19 Population of India’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

INDONESIA

Table 9 Indonesia: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Growing gap between city and countryside
Chart 20 Population of Indonesia’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

JAPAN

Table 10 Japan: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Managing decline
Chart 21 Population of Japan’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

MEXICO

Table 11 Mexico: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Rich neighbours and remittances
Destabilising drugs
Chart 22 Population of Mexico’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

NIGERIA

Table 12 Nigeria: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Chart 23 Population of Nigeria’s Major Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

RUSSIA

Table 13 Russia: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Chart 24 Population of Russia’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

TURKEY

Table 14 Turkey: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Chart 25 Population of Turkey’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

UK

Table 15 UK: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Chart 26 Population of UK’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015
Scotland - old alliances and new identities

US

Table 16 US: Population and Spending 1990-2020
Chart 27 Population of the US’ Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015
SxSW - the decline of the Atlantic influence

FUTURE OUTLOOK

Trends in urbanisation
Table 17 GDP Growth (%) by Region 2010 Actual, 2011-2015 Forecast
Summary 3 Cityscope 2025 City/Metropolitan Region Rankings