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The Power of Proximity: The Complex Story of 21st Century Cities

October 2011

The story of the city is the story of humanity. Cities are made up of people, not buildings. The past decades have seen rapid urbanisation and, for the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population now live in cities. Urbanisation has been driven by growing affluence and a rising middle class. This report looks at the issues facing the affluent, rising and emerging middle classes and their role as consumers and the drivers of future city growth.

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What this report includes

  • Top-level strategic analysis of how major consumer trends will influence global markets
  • Consumer insight
  • Impact across all relevant consumer markets
  • Unique graphics and case studies
  • Key market snapshots
  • Accompanying presentation to synthesise main findings
     

Why buy this report

  • Identify factors driving change now and in the future
  • Understand motivation
  • Forward-looking outlook
  • Briefings and presentation should provoke lively discussion at senior level
  • Take a step back from micro trends
  • Get up to date estimates and comment

Delivery format

PDF/Word
Downloadable from MyPages

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

History of the city
Table 1 World Population 1800-2050 Chart 1 Urban/Rural Population by Region 2010
21st century cities and urban living

THE RISE OF THE MEGACITY

Table 2 Population of the World’s Megacities 2010
21st century cities
Shifts in global power Chart 2 Changes in GDP Growth by Decade, by Region 1980-2020 Rise of the middle cities Super-cities Competition or collaboration Tension between excitement and safety

THE STORY OF CITIES IS MULTI-FACETED

Mature, rising and emerging cities Summary 1 Mature, Rising and Emerging Cities
Mature cities: rural dreams, novelty and the cost of change
London as a brand Detroit and the rust belt
Rising cities: crucible of growth
Chart 3 Average Age of BRIC Population 1980-2020 Chengdu Dubai
Emerging cities: rapid transformation
Dhaka Ulan Bator

THE ENGINE OF THE FUTURE: ECONOMICS OF THE CITY

Global and regional growth rates Chart 4 GDP PPP Per Capita vs % Urban Population 2010 Rising middle class Table 3 Middle Class Growth by Region 1990/2005 Chart 5 The Rise Of The Middle Class Consumer: Income Concentration Per Adult by Decile, Major Markets 2010 Chart 6 Consumer Expenditure on Food and Housing as % Total Spending, Major Markets 2010 Income inequalities Chart 7 Gini Index, Major Markets 2010 Housing pressure Chart 8 Proportion of Single-person Households, Major Markets 2010 4.5 The world is getting older Chart 9 Age Profiles by Dependency, Major Markets 2010 Healthy, wealthy and wise

BLOWBACK: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGE

Managing high expectations Middle class unrest? Migration and fears of the “outsider” Chart 10 Net Migration, Major Markets 2010 Table 4 Remittances: Inflows and Outflows, Major Markets 2009 and 2010 Terror needs a city

THE HUMAN ZOO: SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF URBAN LIVING

Chart 11 Paradoxes of City Living: City living creates complex social questions Demographic difference Chart 12 Unemployment Rate Among 15-25 Year-olds, Major Markets 2010 Identity creation and happiness management Fortress or cocoon? Standing out or fitting in? Liquid status Health, wellbeing and life expectancy From sprawl to “hive”

CITIES IN THE AGE OF NETWORKS - THE IMPORTANCE OF INFRASTRUCTURE

Electro-reliance and power Water forces Sustainable urban living Transport

THE CONNECTED CITY

Chart 13 Mobile Phone Subscribers and Internet Users, by Selected Markets 2009/2010 The global village of the internet Chart 14 PC, Internet and Broadband Penetration, Major Markets 2010 Accelerated by mobile phones Chart 15 Mobile Phones Per Capita, Major Markets 2010 Crowds, clouds and dependency Reinforced by traditional media Technology’s “spiky” world

IMPACT ON CONSUMER MARKETS - PATTERNS OF CHANGE

Marketing and brand evolution Summary 2 Mature, Rising and Emerging Cities Shopping gets even more social Shop the world Retailing plans Supporting dreams through consumption Buying time - the continuing rise of convenience

URBANISATION PATTERNS IN MAJOR MARKETS

BRAZIL

Table 5 Brazil: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Chart 16 Population of Brazil’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

CHINA

Table 6 China: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Will China get rich before it gets old? Chart 17 Population of China’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015 Rise of middle-tier cities

EGYPT

Table 7 Egypt: Population and Spending 1990-2020 The Arab Spring Chart 18 Population of Egypt’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

INDIA

Table 8 India: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Poised for global growth Chart 19 Population of India’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

INDONESIA

Table 9 Indonesia: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Growing gap between city and countryside Chart 20 Population of Indonesia’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

JAPAN

Table 10 Japan: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Managing decline Chart 21 Population of Japan’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

MEXICO

Table 11 Mexico: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Rich neighbours and remittances Destabilising drugs Chart 22 Population of Mexico’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

NIGERIA

Table 12 Nigeria: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Chart 23 Population of Nigeria’s Major Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

RUSSIA

Table 13 Russia: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Chart 24 Population of Russia’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

TURKEY

Table 14 Turkey: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Chart 25 Population of Turkey’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015

UK

Table 15 UK: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Chart 26 Population of UK’s Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015 Scotland - old alliances and new identities

US

Table 16 US: Population and Spending 1990-2020 Chart 27 Population of the US’ Main Cities 2000/2005/2010/2015 SxSW - the decline of the Atlantic influence

FUTURE OUTLOOK

Trends in urbanisation Table 17 GDP Growth (%) by Region 2010 Actual, 2011-2015 Forecast Summary 3 Cityscope 2025 City/Metropolitan Region Rankings
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