The War on Meat: How Low-meat and No-meat Diets are Impacting Consumer Markets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Factors affecting meat consumption

Consumer Market Trends

Chart 1 Leading Markets for Meat Alternatives 2010

Outlook

Summary 1 Opportunities for Manufacturers of Meat-free Foods

INTRODUCTION AND DEFINITIONS

Introduction

Types of diet

Meat-free diets
Low-meat diets

Meat substitutes

Soya meat
Wheat gluten
Tofu
Tempeh
Mycoprotein
Vegetable fibres

FACTORS AFFECTING MEAT CONSUMPTION

Growth of vegetarianism

Food scares prompt more consumers to make the change

Number of vegetarians by country

India has largest non meat-eating community
Vegetarianism rare in China and Japan
Germany, Italy and Switzerland lead the way in Europe...
...but France lags behind
Vegetarianism grows rapidly in US
Table 1 Estimated Number of Vegetarians by Country 2010
Improved labelling systems

Celebrity influence

Celebrities support Meatless Mondays campaign
The Oprah Winfrey Show goes vegan for a month
Celebrity chef power in the UK

Ethical concerns

The case against factory farming
Consumer power brings about change

Religious issues

Hindus and Jains are strictly vegetarian
Some Buddhists encouraged to avoid meat
Table 2 Selected Religions by Country 2010
Growing Muslim population drives market for lamb
Distribution of halal meat hampered by controversy
Asda introduces halal concessions in UK
Foodservice offers halal options
Kosher meat

Healthy eating trends

The meat controversy
Beneficial in moderation
Health implications of a non-meat diet
The meat industry fights back

Sustainability issues

The problems of factory farming
Depleting fish stocks
EU fishing reform
The legacy of Japan’s earthquake
Sustainability and plant-based foods

Food safety issues

From BSE to H1N1
E. coli and salmonella scares
Hormone-free beef
Vegetables also hit

Economic issues

Rising incomes make meat more affordable in emerging markets
Table 3 Annual Disposable Incomes Per Household in Selected Countries 2005/2010
Rising meat prices
UK supermarkets use mince as loss leader
Table 4 Retail Price Indices of Fresh Foods in Key Markets 2005-2010

Industry consolidation within vegetarian foods

Meat-free market goes mainstream
Kellogg leads the way in the US
Hain Celestial gains international presence
Quorn dominates UK market
Dutch companies at the forefront of meat-free developments
Israeli-based Tivall key player in meat-free kosher foods
Asian meat-free companies focus on tofu-based foods
Ready meal producers introduce meat-free options
Summary 2 Selected Producers of Meat Substitutes 2011

Wider availability of vegetarian food

Retailers step up offer
Foodservice introduces more meat-free options
Winners in the US
UK restaurants get creative
Fast food becomes more veggie-friendly
Fast food outlets under pressure from NGOs
Gearing up for Indian expansion
Non-commercial foodservice

CONSUMER MARKET TRENDS

Fresh food overview

Meat and vegetables growth lags behind
Demand for convenience
Health trend boosts sales of fruits, nuts and pulses
Fish takes share from meat due to healthier image
Pulses gain importance as protein source
All sectors hit by food safety scandals
Chart 2 Growth Index of Global Fresh Foods by Volume 2005-2010

Meat

Sales by sector
Table 5 Global Sales of Meat by Sector 2005/2010
Sales by country
Table 6 Global Sales of Fresh Meat by Country 2005/2010

Fish and seafood

Sales by sector
Table 7 Global Sales of Fish and Seafood by Sector 2005/2010
Asia-Pacific leads in fish consumption
Sales stagnate in North America and Europe
Table 8 Sales of Fish and Seafood in Selected Countries 2005/2010

Fruit and vegetables

Sales by sector
Table 9 Global Sales of Fruits, Vegetables and Starchy Roots by Sector 2005/2010
China continues to lead global consumption
High prices and convenience hinder the growth of greens
Bananas lead growth in fruits
Fresh potatoes lose out to more convenient alternatives
Table 10 Sales of Fruits, Vegetables and Starchy Roots in Selected Countries 2005/2010

Nuts and pulses

Sales by sector
Table 11 Global Sales of Nuts and Pulses by Sector 2005/2010
Brazilians eat the most pulses
Walnuts benefit from healthy positioning
Table 12 Sales of Nuts and Pulses in Selected Countries 2005/2010

Meat substitutes

Market remains niche
Soy-based products show strongest growth
New product development boosts sales
Companies step up marketing efforts
Table 13 Global Retail Sales of Meat Alternatives by Sector 2005/2010
Table 14 Retail Sales of Meat Alternatives in Selected Countries 2005/2010

Vegetarian ready meals

Chart 3 Global Retail Sales of Vegetarian Ready Meals by Sector 2005/2010
Sales of vegetarian ready meals by country
Table 15 Retail Sales of Frozen Vegetarian Ready Meals by Country 2005/2010
Table 16 Sales of Chilled Vegetarian Ready Meals by Country 2005/2010
Table 17 Sales of by Canned/Preserved Vegetarian Ready Meals by Country 2005/2010

Vitamins and dietary supplements

The need to supplement a non-meat diet
Market boosted by growing concern over health prevention
Protein supplements replace meat
Table 18 Global Retail Sales of Vitamins and Dietary Supplements by Sector 2005/2010
US and Japan form largest markets
Table 19 Retail Sales of Non-herbal Dietary Supplements in Selected Countries 2005/2010

KEY MARKET TRENDS

China

Trends in fresh food consumption
Food safety of paramount importance to consumers
Pork dominates meat consumption
Chart 4 China: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism

France

Trends in fresh food consumption
Chart 5 France: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism
Chart 6 France: Vegetarian Statistics 2010

Germany

Trends in fresh food consumption
E. coli scare likely to hit vegetable sales further in 2011
Chart 7 Germany: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism
Chart 8 Germany: Vegetarian Statistics 2010

India

Trends in fresh food consumption
Lack of cold facilities hampers growth
Chart 9 India: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism
Chart 10 India: Vegetarian Statistics 2010

Japan

Trends in fresh food consumption
Fish dominates sales, but meat showing stronger growth
Chart 11 Japan: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism
Chart 12 Japan: Vegetarian Statistics 2010

UK

Trends in fresh food consumption
Chart 13 UK: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism
Meat-reducers
Established market for meat alternatives
Chart 14 UK: Vegetarian Statistics 2010

US

Trends in meat consumption
Fruits gain share at the expense of vegetables
Chart 15 US: Consumption of Fresh Foods by Type 2005/2010
Extent of vegetarianism
Table 20 Consumption of Animal-derived Products Among US Adults 2009
Youth market shows similar trends
Table 21 Consumption of Animal-derived Products Among US Youths 2010
Meat reducers on the rise
Well established meat-free market
Chart 16 US: Vegetarian Statistics 2010

FUTURE OUTLOOK

Trends in fresh food consumption

The vegetable divide
Meat sales will continue to rise gradually
Pulses and nuts to see strongest growth
Focus on improving food safety
Buying local
Table 22 Forecast Sales of Fresh Foods by Sector 2010/2015
The need to promote a varied diet
Greater demand for quality
In vitro meat – a solution for the future?

Meat-free developments

Further growth predicted for vegetarians and meat-reducers
Meat-free to go mainstream
Competition among meat-free brands will intensify
Differentiating the offer is key
Potential in emerging markets
Chart 17 Forecast Retail Sales of Meat Alternatives 2010/2015

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