Tissue and Hygiene Quarterly Statement Q3 2018

Marginal upgrade to forecast globally

On the whole, the third quarter forecast sees a marginal upgrade in sales projections through to 2022 in consumer tissue and disposable hygiene. Upgrades across product categories ensure opportunities in the global market. However, a marginal extent of the upgrade points to further challenges as markets and consumers continue to evolve and rationalise their purchases, while pressures from the competitive and retail environments remain strong.

More industry actions put in place to reverse pricing trends across categories and geographies

Viewed from a value vs volume perspective, the forecast upgrade signals ongoing challenges to the industry to drive prices and profit margins upward. Nonetheless, a number of key players in the industry announced price increases in consumer tissue across markets. The success of this move will depend on it being adopted by all suppliers as well as retailer and consumer acceptance of the increases.

Concerns over the impact of changing tariff and trade policies linger

Ongoing changes in trade policies and tariffs add to uncertainties over their impact on the industry and consumers as changes to policies start making their way through the supply chain. Current Euromonitor industry forecasts indicate potential losses for the industry (combined tissue and hygiene) in key markets such as the US and China, amounting to over USD824 million and USD975 million over the next five years; the loss will be more acute in the already sluggish US market.

Facial tissue, paper towels, and disposable pants are open to more value-added opportunities and growth

While adult incontinence remains the fastest growing category globally, there are also opportunities in products like facial tissue, disposable pants, and paper towels. The three categories in fact lead the projected growth upgrade, albeit by a small margin, over other categories in consumer tissue and disposable hygiene.