The Q3 forecast update for retail tissue and disposable hygiene globally demonstrates a downgrade to growth in 2020, versus the previous quarterly update. However, at a category and market level, the extent of downgrades and upgrades differs and follows waves of Coronavirus across countries and respective consumer, government and industry responses. The report reveals highlights of the Q3 forecast updates, a with closer look at the dynamics of soft drivers, as well as key factors to watch over t
This report comes in PPT.
Overall, Q3 update indicates a downgrade globally for retail tissue and disposable hygiene, versus Q2. The downgrade in more pronounced in disposable hygiene, and only marginal in retail tissue. As GDP projections across many key markets worsen, coupled with normalisation of supply chain and return to pre-COVID-19 promotional patterns, expected industry value gains in 2020 are lowered, with a further drop in 2021.
The extent of quarterly downgrades/upgrades - current Q3 versus previous Q2 in May versus the original projections in February - to a large degree follows the waves of COVID-19 and subsequent easing of restrictions and normalisation of demand, with markets such as China holding mainly steady through quarterly updates in 2020, with stronger fluctuations in the US, and more significant downgrade in Brazil.
As supply chain normalisation and improvements in e-commerce logistics occupied a significant portion of companies’ activities in 2020, especially in Q1 and Q2, the COVID-19 environment encouraged more packaging innovation to ease supply chain pressures, as well as opened up opportunities for smaller brands and private label to step up and raise brand awareness, in both store retail and online.
Post-COVID-19 strategies focus on a significant global unmet potential across retail tissue and disposable hygiene. However, ongoing population and demographic shifts will put more pressure on innovation strategies alongside value-added products, while at the same time balancing price and value offer to entice purchases among lower income groups - the core of unmet potential. Last but not least, ethical consumerism will remain on the consumer agenda, gaining pace long term.
This is the aggregation of retail and away-from home tissue and disposable hygiene products as well as Rx/reimbursement adult incontinence.
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