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Tissue and Hygiene Quarterly Statement Q4 2018

December 2018

Euromonitor’s quarterly update indicates a marginal upgrade to global retail tissue and hygiene sales forecasts, with a number of markets showing continued improvements. However, uneven recovery and political turmoil remain on the agenda, with potential risks to the pace of growth in the short- to mid-term. This report provides the latest updates to projections, analyses a number of risk scenarios to assess the potential impact on industry sales, and looks at the latest innovation strategies.

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Key Findings

Maintaining a positive trajectory globally

Euromonitor’s quarterly update indicates a marginal upgrade to global retail tissue and hygiene sales forecasts, with a number of markets, such as Egypt, showing continuing improvements in macroeconomic parameters and projections, which are expected to translate into rising consumer confidence and a return to spending.

Recovery in developing/emerging markets does not translate into share gains for all

However, improved projections and indications of steady growth ahead are not expected to benefit all brands. Competitive pressures continue to rise and challenge further key global brands – from disruptors coming from outside of the industry realm, including changing family planning and environmental concerns, to the evolution of affordable products and brands in key developing markets.

The US, Canada and China are going steady, but tariffs remain on the agenda, with a potential threat to industry revenues

The current forecast update points to continuing growth in China, as well as steady trends in the US and Canada; albeit still comparatively slow. However, the persistent threat of trade wars remains on the agenda. Despite the recent agreement with Canada and Mexico, tariffs are yet to be formally removed. Recent talks with China are yet to eliminate the risk of trade wars. The forecast scenario indicates, however, that US-Canada trade relations are likely to have a stronger negative impact on industry sales than trade wars with China, mainly due to the changing supply chain for tissue products in the US.

Targeted innovation and the further exploration of disruptors to support brand and company dynamics

In a challenging environment, especially for key players in developed markets, innovation remains the key to driving brand dynamics. Recently, the path of innovation also turned to accepting disruptors as possible growth drivers, such as the 2018 launch of a menstrual reusable cup by Procter & Gamble under the Tampax brand.

Introduction

Scope

Q4 Macroeconomic Update

Executive summary
GDP growth forecasts: revisions over last quarter
Global risk scenarios
Scenario news
Major macro risks for tissue and hygiene

Q4 Tissue and Hygiene Industry Update

Key findings

Q3 tissue and hygiene industry update

Updated quarterly forecast: steady growth globally
Egypt promises better growth while Nigeria is going steady…
…but growth does not benefit all brands, as other factors are at play
China and the US are holding steady, but Brazil shows a marginal drop
The US, Canada and China: trade policies and risks to retail tissue
Eurozone recession will affect industry prospects in Southern Europe
Emerging markets slowdown poses risks to revenues
Tailored product development and marketing are necessary
Embracing disruptors through innovation to widen brand appeal
Key takeaways

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models
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