Tobacco: The End of Latin America as a Growth Region?

Introduction

Scope

Key findings

Region and Country H ighlights

Latin America sees decline on a par with the west

Region and Country Highlights

Still some growth in the market despite a shrinking region

Loss of social acceptability will see Mexico will drive volume down

Legislation and taxes drive Mexico into decline

Brazil is a major exporter

Harsher legislation to put premium on smoking in Brazil

Fall in real price drives volume growth in Argentina

Indigenous tobacco products in Latin America: Venezuela’s chimó

Smoking Prevalence

Latin America sees smokers rise but smoking prevalence decline

Number of smokers rising but is the habit growing?

Legislation Overview

Latin America: Summary table

Bans set to make smoking invisible

Brazilian ban will have a major impact on menthol volume

Low tar trend but high tar still dominates in some markets

Taxation and Price

Cigarettes: Global price analysis

Rising affluence lessens the impact of tax-related price rises

Rising incomes make premium brands more affordable

Some volume growth despite tax increases

Illicit Trade

Latin America takes more than its fair share of illicit sales

Illicit trade on a major scale in Brazil

Company and Brand Shares

A two-horse race in Latin America

Colombian acquisition helps BAT to sustain leadership

Brand share performance

BAT has more top brands but does not lead

Cigarettes Innovation

Pack size the most widespread innovation

Pack size a key marketing tool - for now

OTP: Cigars and Cigarillos

Dominican Republic cigars: Giving it large

Latin America the home of cigar production

Traditional market means innovation is limited

Channel Analysis

Small outlets still dominate Latin American distribution

Some examples of typical distribution channels

Prospects

A changing landscape as anti-smoking policy builds

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