In spite of having plunged by more than half during 2020 due to COVID-19 disruption and the economic shock it engendered, travel retail current value sales will see no more than a modest recovery during 2021. With both inbound and outbound international travel set to remain highly restricted, as the rate of COVID-19 infection remains relatively high in Russia and its vaccination programme has only made slow progress, domestic tourism will be the main driver of this rebound.
As was the case in many other countries, severe restrictions on movement were introduced in Russia during March 2020 in response to COVID-19, but they had been eased somewhat by the middle of the year. Nonetheless, as of September 2021, Russia’s borders remained closed with most of its popular source markets.
Airlines have responded to COVID-19 by cutting their prices, re-orienting their networks towards domestic routes and (in some cases) pivoting towards a low-cost model. For example, Azur Air, which, prior to the pandemic, had only operated international routes, began to fly to Sochi from Moscow and other Russian cities in June 2020.
It remains quite difficult for local consumers to travel abroad due to COVID-19 restrictions, and many are reluctant to do so anyway due to the perceived risk of contagion. As restrictions on movement ease and the vaccination rate rises, inbound arrivals to Russia are expected to almost treble during 2022.
Both inbound and outbound travel are forecast to rebound strongly during the forecast period. As restrictions on movement ease and the vaccination rate rises, inbound arrivals to Russia are expected to almost treble during 2022.
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Travel
Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.
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