Travel: Quarterly Statement Q1 2018

Boost to receipts

The Q1 2018 quarterly statement shows that inbound receipts are growing faster than previously predicted, as stronger pricing power drives up average spend with arrivals. As concerns rise about over-tourism, putting value growth above volume is necessary.

Some bright spots

Despite the war in Syria and tensions with Qatar, certain bright spots are visible in the Middle East, such as Bahrain enjoying an upgrade to its forecast performance thanks to stronger ties with Saudi Arabia.

Rohingya crisis

A few years ago, Myanmar was an upcoming destination, however, the country’s tourism potential has been heavily impacted by the Rohingya humanitarian crisis, which has led to over 600,00 refugees fleeing to Bangladesh.

Intra-regional pull

In times of uncertainty, consumers tend to travel closer to home, especially within their own region. This trend is evident with stronger-than-expected receipts in Europe as well as Macau benefiting from China outbound travel.

Russia downgrade

Official source Rosstat has adjusted the levels of reported historic arrivals. However, there has also been a quarterly downgrade due to a slowing economy, coupled with rising tensions with the West. The outlook for Russia’s FIFA 2018 tournament looks subdued.

China outbound rallies

China has enjoyed a revival after a slow year in 2017, boosted by an uplift in the latest quarterly economic outlook, which is having a positive impact on outbound travel. Destinations in North Asia and South-east Asia are reaping the benefits.

Slow recovery

Egypt’s recovery is taking a long time to firm up, as the country continues to see Europeans choose destinations closer to home. The UK outbound market is also experiencing a slowdown thanks to the weight of Brexit on economic conditions.