Strategy Briefing

Travel: Quarterly Statement Q1 2018

31 pages, Mar 2018

US$1,325

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In the Travel Quarterly Statement for Q1 2018, we review the current performance of travel and tourism demand, considering the key growth drivers impacting destinations and source markets. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West are rising, whilst Myanmar is suffering from a humanitarian crisis, and countries such as Egypt witness a hampered recovery. Bright spots include European destinations benefiting from the displacement effect as consumers choose perceived safer destinations.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Boost to receipts

The Q1 2018 quarterly statement shows that inbound receipts are growing faster than previously predicted, as stronger pricing power drives up average spend with arrivals. As concerns rise about over-tourism, putting value growth above volume is necessary.

Some bright spots

Despite the war in Syria and tensions with Qatar, certain bright spots are visible in the Middle East, such as Bahrain enjoying an upgrade to its forecast performance thanks to stronger ties with Saudi Arabia.

Rohingya crisis

A few years ago, Myanmar was an upcoming destination, however, the country’s tourism potential has been heavily impacted by the Rohingya humanitarian crisis, which has led to over 600,00 refugees fleeing to Bangladesh.

Intra-regional pull

In times of uncertainty, consumers tend to travel closer to home, especially within their own region. This trend is evident with stronger-than-expected receipts in Europe as well as Macau benefiting from China outbound travel.

Russia downgrade

Official source Rosstat has adjusted the levels of reported historic arrivals. However, there has also been a quarterly downgrade due to a slowing economy, coupled with rising tensions with the West. The outlook for Russia’s FIFA 2018 tournament looks subdued.

China outbound rallies

China has enjoyed a revival after a slow year in 2017, boosted by an uplift in the latest quarterly economic outlook, which is having a positive impact on outbound travel. Destinations in North Asia and South-east Asia are reaping the benefits.

Slow recovery

Egypt’s recovery is taking a long time to firm up, as the country continues to see Europeans choose destinations closer to home. The UK outbound market is also experiencing a slowdown thanks to the weight of Brexit on economic conditions.

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Scope

Key findings

Executive Summary

Real GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Global Risk Scenarios

Major Macro Risks for the Travel Industry

Forecast Update: What Does It Mean for the Travel Industry?

Global receipts enjoy marginal upgrade but volume dips

Positive arrivals upgrades with improved economic outlook

Overall more downgrades to future performance as tensions rise

Bahrain on the up thanks to improving trade, but tensions remain

Rohingya humanitarian crisis damages Myanmar tourism potential

Russia FIFA 2018 set for subdued demand

Deteriorating political climate set to impact Russia inbound

Stronger pricing power critical to counteract over-tourism

Western Europe forecasts improve for inbound receipts

Egypt on a slow road to recovery

Brexit bright spot for UK inbound receipts

World outbound expenditure revised upwards

No-Deal Brexit will undermine UK’s outbound expenditure

China outbound rallies after a weak performance in 2017

China’s long-term growth slowdown

Key takeaways

About Our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model

Travel Forecast Model applications

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Travel: Quarterly Statement Q1 2018

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Boost to receipts

Some bright spots

Rohingya crisis

Intra-regional pull

Russia downgrade

China outbound rallies

Slow recovery

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Scope

Key findings

Executive Summary

Real GDP Growth Forecasts: Revisions Over Last Quarter

Global Risk Scenarios

Major Macro Risks for the Travel Industry

Forecast Update: What Does It Mean for the Travel Industry?

Global receipts enjoy marginal upgrade but volume dips

Positive arrivals upgrades with improved economic outlook

Overall more downgrades to future performance as tensions rise

Bahrain on the up thanks to improving trade, but tensions remain

Rohingya humanitarian crisis damages Myanmar tourism potential

Russia FIFA 2018 set for subdued demand

Deteriorating political climate set to impact Russia inbound

Stronger pricing power critical to counteract over-tourism

Western Europe forecasts improve for inbound receipts

Egypt on a slow road to recovery

Brexit bright spot for UK inbound receipts

World outbound expenditure revised upwards

No-Deal Brexit will undermine UK’s outbound expenditure

China outbound rallies after a weak performance in 2017

China’s long-term growth slowdown

Key takeaways

About Our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model

Travel Forecast Model applications

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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