The Travel Quarterly Statement for Q1 2022 reflects the fact that cautious optimism for recovery has been tempered by war in Ukraine, leading to a humanitarian crisis at the heart of Europe and a major slowdown in the global economy, acting as a drag on huge pent-up demand. The impacts of war have been felt particularly in the doubling of inflation, as energy, fuel and food prices soared, leading to higher prices, deterring would-be travellers.
The outlook for travel and tourism has been overshadowed by the war in Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, with the Russian invasion. The war is predicted to cause a drop of USD7 billion in global inbound tourism spending in 2022, as Russian outbound tourism demand collapses under economic sanctions. The latest outlook for global travel and tourism is for global inbound spending to be at 45% of 2019 levels in 2022, based on the latest quarterly statement.
Some countries, like Turkey, are already dealing with the economic fallout of the war, with spiralling costs of food and energy, living with the reality of hyperinflation. The war has caused a spike in global energy prices, as sanctions shut off Russian oil and gas, with further sanctions expected. Rising prices are a double-edged sword for the likes of airlines, where pent-up demand on the one hand enables prices to rise, but on the other, risks driving consumers out of the market as household budgets tighten.
Despite the rising uncertainty caused by recent geopolitical events in Europe, destinations across the world are becoming emboldened in their approach to opening up to double vaccinated passengers, thanks to mass vaccinations of residents, as well as hospitality staff, in places like the Caribbean. Asia Pacific has been slower to open up, due to red tape and low vaccination rates, but progress is now being made, with the likes of Cambodia and Singapore, along with Australasia, opening their doors.
The window for reversing the negative impacts of climate change is closing according to the latest IPCC report, but tourism spending recovery is set to take several years, so the time to act on sustainable transformation is now. Embracing decarbonisation across the travel supply chain is critical, and will help protect the ecosystems and communities that tourism depends on. Extreme climate events will have a damaging long-lasting impact on even the most resilient destinations if they fail to act.
If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE! Home Page