Strategy Briefing

Travel Quarterly Statement: Q2 2017

37 pages, Jul 2017

US$1,325

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In the Travel Quarterly Statement for Q2 2017, the fundamentals remain sound for global travel and tourism demand; however, there are flashpoints of uncertainty. In the US, the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policies have not yet been fully implemented, causing disruption. Rising global terror attacks and travel restrictions, such as select GCC markets imposing bans on Qatar, or the US on Cuba, will ultimately have a negative impact on tourism flows.

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Overview

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Tourism demand on course, but faces headwinds

The outlook for global travel and tourism demand remains on track, based on the latest quarterly update published in the Travel Forecast Model for Q2 2017, although there are some major headwinds that are buffeting the industry.

The Trump factor undermines potential

President Trump’s erratic approach to trade and immigration policies has led to a 0.8% downgrade in the US’s forecast outlook for inbound tourism, as doubt hangs over the US and its relations with its NAFTA trading partners. The travel restriction imposed on six Muslim countries has garnered negative coverage.

UK terror threat will not thwart the boom

The UK witnessed multiple terror attacks in London and Manchester in the last quarter, with the Travel Forecast Model predicting a potential shortfall of 270,000 arrivals in 2017. It is usual for there to be a sharp contraction in demand in the year of an attack, followed by a bounce-back.

Reversal of fortunes for France

The latest quarterly data for France has been upgraded to show that arrivals to France will recover by 2018, two years earlier than originally predicted, as the pace of tourism recovery picks up speed, following the wave of terror since 2015.

Constricting demand is counter-intuitive

Re-imposing US-Cuba restrictions and severing ties with Qatar by Saudi Arabia and others is seen as a counter-intuitive move, as these restrictions cut off a valuable source of revenue from destinations.

China a welcome source of resilient demand

In uncertain times, China offers a large and resilient source of outbound tourism demand. Even in a worst case scenario of a China hard landing, Chinese departures are expected to grow by a 4.2% CAGR over 2017-2020, rather than the baseline forecast of a 8.2% CAGR .

Externalities as a distraction

The various flashpoints of geopolitical tension may prove to be a distraction from more serious factors that will undermine future tourism demand, such as constrained growth in the world’s major outbound markets of the US and UK.

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Overview

Scope

Key findings

Executive summary

GDP forecasts: Revisions over last quarter

Travel: Quarterly Statement Q2 2017

Global risk scenarios

Major macro risks for tourism receipts

Forecast Update: What Does it Mean for the Travel Industry?

Global tourism demand holds steady

Upgraded performance in China counteracts a US deceleration

Improving outlook for some: but not for all – due to geopolitical tensions

The US fails to avoid the fallout from the Trump effect

Travel suspension will bring far-reaching consequences

Competing destinations pick up the slack

Cuba-US relations return to the deep freeze?

US device ban is another sign of the times, but less offensive

UK contends with more than Brexit, as terror stalks the streets

High-level terrorism scenario would not curtail the tourism boom

Top destinations: London and Manchester – under attack

The UK should look to China to future-proof demand

Europe is already sold, and increasingly targets China

What next for the UK?

France embraces the “new normal” to face challenges

Shifting demand in Europe will not help over-tourism

Lifting of travel bans sees Egypt’s outlook brighten

Cutting ties with Qatar puts airlines in brace position

Shutting off a valuable source of Qatari spending

Travel Forecast Model picks up on festering bilateral tensions

Key takeaways

About our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model

Travel Forecast Model applications

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

Request more information

Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Travel Quarterly Statement: Q2 2017

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Tourism demand on course, but faces headwinds

The Trump factor undermines potential

UK terror threat will not thwart the boom

Reversal of fortunes for France

Constricting demand is counter-intuitive

China a welcome source of resilient demand

Externalities as a distraction

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Overview

Scope

Key findings

Executive summary

GDP forecasts: Revisions over last quarter

Travel: Quarterly Statement Q2 2017

Global risk scenarios

Major macro risks for tourism receipts

Forecast Update: What Does it Mean for the Travel Industry?

Global tourism demand holds steady

Upgraded performance in China counteracts a US deceleration

Improving outlook for some: but not for all – due to geopolitical tensions

The US fails to avoid the fallout from the Trump effect

Travel suspension will bring far-reaching consequences

Competing destinations pick up the slack

Cuba-US relations return to the deep freeze?

US device ban is another sign of the times, but less offensive

UK contends with more than Brexit, as terror stalks the streets

High-level terrorism scenario would not curtail the tourism boom

Top destinations: London and Manchester – under attack

The UK should look to China to future-proof demand

Europe is already sold, and increasingly targets China

What next for the UK?

France embraces the “new normal” to face challenges

Shifting demand in Europe will not help over-tourism

Lifting of travel bans sees Egypt’s outlook brighten

Cutting ties with Qatar puts airlines in brace position

Shutting off a valuable source of Qatari spending

Travel Forecast Model picks up on festering bilateral tensions

Key takeaways

About our Industry Forecast Models

About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model

Travel Forecast Model applications

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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