Travel: Quarterly Statement Q2 2021

June 2021

The Travel Quarterly Statement for Q2 2021 reveals that the outlook for travel and tourism continues to be thwarted by new variants and ongoing travel restrictions despite vaccinations continuing apace. Key to reopening safely are digital health schemes such as the EU’s Digital Health Certificate that are inter-operable. Conflicts, climate disasters and geopolitical events also beset the sector in Q2 further dampening the rebound and impacting long term recovery.

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Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Q2 Travel Update

Updated forecast for travel: major downward revisions over Q2
Global view: protracted recovery for spending and trips
Largest mid-term downgrades witnessed in Asia and Europe
Despite growing industry optimism, few countries see upgrades

Q2 Travel update

Travel bans and restrictions remain widespread
Delta variant has a devastating toll on life, delaying India’s recovery
Conflict destroys hopes of pandemic recovery in Israel
Ryanair hijack exacerbates Europe’s aviation woes
Stop-start for Singapore-Hong Kong air travel bubble
UK’s new traffic light system leads to travel chaos
Progress in the roll-out of interoperable digital health passes
Equitable access to vaccines through COVAX vital for tourism recovery
Sri Lanka faces environmental disaster from oil spill
Tokyo 2020 on a knife-edge amid growing controversy
Amex snaps up Egencia as business travel consolidates
New start-up airlines like Flyr buck the trend
Non-linear recovery demands a creative and inclusive approach

Q2 macroeconomic Update

Global baseline outlook: faster recovery expected
Uncertainty continues to decline, but remains significant
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, AE (%, percentage points)
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, EMDE (%, percentage points)
Global risks map
Global Risk Index scores and rankings
COVID-19 scenarios summary

About Our Industry Forecast Model

Euromonitor International and COVID-19: forecasts and analysis
Travel COVID-19 data and reporting timeline
About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model
Travel Forecast Model applications
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Travel Forecast Model
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