The latest Travel Quarterly Statement for Q4 2020 shows the outlook for travel and tourism continues to be impacted negatively by the pandemic and global recession, with downgrades witnessed by the majority of destinations for inbound arrivals and receipts over the past quarter. Green shoots are few and far between, with domestic tourism primarily driving nascent recovery signs, as international travel is struggling with new waves and lockdowns.
This report comes in PPT.
The results for 2020 have been revised significantly downwards over the previous quarter due to the pandemic and ensuing global recession. Arrivals fell to 666 million in 2020, down 54.5% on 2019, with spending even worse hit, down 56.7% on 2019 to USD764 billion for 2020. The recovery is expected to begin in 2021, following mass vaccinations combined with other protocols.
Three quarters of countries saw downgrades as travel and tourism businesses across the spectrum struggle with a patchwork approach to travel bans, restrictions, lockdowns and new health protocols such as COVID-19 testing applied in a myriad of different forms.
The majority of countries in the short-term post-lockdown turned to their domestic tourism markets, tapping into residents’ desire to experience fresh air and nature. The subsequent impact of the pivot is felt in countries that were especially dependent on China outbound demand, such as Thailand, Australia Hong Kong and Macau.
President Trump’s final days in office are mired in violence and chaos, however, with the new President Elect to be sworn in, there are hopes of a new chapter where the US will rejoin the Paris Agreement and relations can be healed between partners such as the EU.
Brexit was finally signed off averting a no-deal scenario and allowing the EU and the UK to move forward under new terms. Unfortunately, the virus has taken a severe toll on key European destinations, with spending down 57% for the big five (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK), expected to take five years to recover to pre-crisis levels.
The pandemic collided with the climate emergency and offered a period of respite for destinations exposed to over-tourism. The call for building back better has never been louder, as countries and travel businesses seek to redress the wrongs of a volume-driven model that drove commoditisation. With COP26 hosted in Scotland later in 2021, the collective push for a sustainable tourism transformation is gaining strength.
Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.
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