Travel: Quarterly Statement Q4 2020

January 2021

The latest Travel Quarterly Statement for Q4 2020 shows the outlook for travel and tourism continues to be impacted negatively by the pandemic and global recession, with downgrades witnessed by the majority of destinations for inbound arrivals and receipts over the past quarter. Green shoots are few and far between, with domestic tourism primarily driving nascent recovery signs, as international travel is struggling with new waves and lockdowns.

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Key Findings

Turning the page

The results for 2020 have been revised significantly downwards over the previous quarter due to the pandemic and ensuing global recession. Arrivals fell to 666 million in 2020, down 54.5% on 2019, with spending even worse hit, down 56.7% on 2019 to USD764 billion for 2020. The recovery is expected to begin in 2021, following mass vaccinations combined with other protocols.

Scattergun approach

Three quarters of countries saw downgrades as travel and tourism businesses across the spectrum struggle with a patchwork approach to travel bans, restrictions, lockdowns and new health protocols such as COVID-19 testing applied in a myriad of different forms.

Domestic twist

The majority of countries in the short-term post-lockdown turned to their domestic tourism markets, tapping into residents’ desire to experience fresh air and nature. The subsequent impact of the pivot is felt in countries that were especially dependent on China outbound demand, such as Thailand, Australia Hong Kong and Macau.

Last stand

President Trump’s final days in office are mired in violence and chaos, however, with the new President Elect to be sworn in, there are hopes of a new chapter where the US will rejoin the Paris Agreement and relations can be healed between partners such as the EU.

Done deal

Brexit was finally signed off averting a no-deal scenario and allowing the EU and the UK to move forward under new terms. Unfortunately, the virus has taken a severe toll on key European destinations, with spending down 57% for the big five (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK), expected to take five years to recover to pre-crisis levels.

Ray of light

The pandemic collided with the climate emergency and offered a period of respite for destinations exposed to over-tourism. The call for building back better has never been louder, as countries and travel businesses seek to redress the wrongs of a volume-driven model that drove commoditisation. With COP26 hosted in Scotland later in 2021, the collective push for a sustainable tourism transformation is gaining strength.

Scope
Euromonitor International and Coronavirus: Forecasts and analysis
Travel COVID-19 data and reporting timeline
Key findings
Global baseline outlook: p artial global recovery expected in 2021
Downside risks to the baseline forecast remain substantial
Advanced economies (AE)
Emerging markets (EMDE)
Global risks map
Summer was more optimistic, but the pandemic sees a second wave
In our baseline view, economies start rebounding in 2021
Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios
Major macro risks for the travel industry
Travel bans and restrictions by region
Substantial downgrades due to existential threat of the pandemic
Few bright spots amidst the gloom of the global travel shutdown
Average trip spending drops as industry struggles with collapse
Positive baseline upgrades boosted by adapting to the next normal
Downgrades for the majority impinged by travel bans and new waves
US fails to take control of the pandemic with devastating effects
China outbound retreats to focus on domestic recovery
Hong Kong faces multiple challenges for its long-term success
UK: No-Deal Brexit narrowly averted
Future of the union at stake with high hopes for COP26
Central America suffers at the hands of Hurricane Eta
Eurozone to contract sharply and still in lockdown spirit
Middle East gradually opens up
Normalisation of relations with Qatar to aid recovery
Doubling down on domestic tourism to build resilience
Key takeaways
About Euromonitor International’s Travel Forecast Model
Travel Forecast Model applications
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Travel Forecast Model

Travel

Travel encompasses several categories including tourism flows, lodging, travel modes, in-destination spending and booking.

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