US Economic Outlook: Q3 2018

Baseline Outlook

Optimistic Short-term Outlook, Mediocre Long-term Growth

The US Economy, 10 Years After the Start of the Global Financial Crisis

Forecast Risks

Rising Risk of a Major Trade War

Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Strong Consumption Growth, But Consumption Level Remains Below Trend

Investment and Labour Productivity

Investment Spending Relative to GDP Still Below the Pre-crisis Level

Slow Productivity Growth Due to Mix of GFC Effects and Pre-GFC Problems

Labour markets, Wages and Household Income

Employment Below Pre-crisis Level Despite Record Low Unemployment

Wages Have Not Kept Up with Labour Productivity Increases

Wages Have Not Kept Up with Labour Productivity Increases

Stagnating Incomes, Higher Inequality, Lower Consumption growth

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions

Interest Rates are Low, but Credit Standards Still Tighter than Pre-GFC

Household Sector has Deleveraged, but Corporate Debt Rising

Household Sector has Deleveraged, but Corporate Debt Rising

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