World Market for Cannabis

Delivery

This report comes in PPT.

Headline findings for 2022

Value sales expand

Despite a stutter in 2022 (13% growth vs 30% in 2021), caused by the prior year’s strong performance, price compression, consumer churn and a more uncertain macro environment, the legal cannabis market is expanding rapidly, as wider legalisation and social acceptance drives consumers into the segment from the existing black market, or as new entrants.

Legacy market dominates

Cannabis is a substance with a history of thousands of years of human use, and is currently known and consumed (no matter what governments might say) in every corner of the world. Our data estimates that 82% of total global value is currently consumed in the illicit market, which could decline to around two thirds by 2027 if further legalisation occurs.

Forecast remains positive

Backed partly by existing legacy use, there is a broad-based growth narrative for legal cannabis. More geographies are moving from prohibition to controlling and taxing cannabinoid products. Consumers are turning to cannabis use in increasingly diverse parts of their lives - therapeutically, for relaxation, mood management and more, feeding a 23% value CAGR over 2022-2027 .

Flower’s declining share

The modern cannabis consumer is diversifying away from the traditional image of ritual recreational flower consumption. There will still be ritual, as well as recreation, alongside a range of fresh use occasions involving innovative delivery mechanisms and sophisticated infused formulations, meaning that flower’s share will decline from 34% in 2022 to around 26% by 2027.

Adult-use the key driver

The fundamental driver of value growth in the global legal cannabis industry over the period up to 2027 will be the wider legalisation of adult-use cannabis in the US (and potentially internationally) driving the user population up by almost 300% to over 40 million. Growth will also occur in other areas, with the CBD user population growing to around 50 million.