The global economic outlook continues to improve, as easing inflation, improved supply conditions and strong labour markets in advanced economies support real income gains, consumer spending and other economic activities in the first quarter of 2024.
Rising geopolitical tensions and economic multipolarity are adding to trade restrictions, shifting the flows of global trade and investment, and hindering economic growth. Against the backdrop of this new global reality, over the long term, companies and countries will continue to follow a globalisation reset strategy, with economic diversification and supply chain security being the key priorities.
Global inflationary pressures are forecast to moderate further in 2024. Under the baseline scenario, global inflation is forecast to stand at 5.4% in 2024 and trend down further to 3.6% in 2025. Lower energy prices, slower consumption growth and normalisation of manufactured goods prices are contributing to lower inflationary pressures.
This year’s commodity market outlook remains highly uncertain. As consumers and businesses continue to grapple with lingering cost pressures and high interest rates, subdued global economic activity is set to translate into softer commodity demand.
Find the latest Q1 projections for GDP growth and inflation in 2024 to help your strategic planning.
In 2024, the global economy is expected to register slowing growth for the second consecutive year. This is primarily due to the dampening effect of high interest rates in most major economies globally, in addition to weakening growth in China, the world’s second largest economy. Yet, this comes after global growth consistently outperformed expectations in 2023, withstanding numerous headwinds, especially ongoing and widening geopolitical tensions.