Energy Shock Redefines Global Economic Resilience
22 Apr 26The US/Israel-Iran war has caused a major shift in global economic dynamics, driving oil prices higher and exposing vulnerabilities in energy-dependent economies. With the Strait of Hormuz – responsible for over a quarter of global oil exports – blocked, inflation and supply chain disruptions are spreading far beyond the Gulf. This crisis is deepening the divide between energy importers and exporters, prompting businesses and governments to reconsider resilience, competitiveness and long-term growth strategies.
Aiste Bijune
Building Resilience Amid Volatile Commodity Markets
2 Apr 26Commodity price volatility has become a structural feature of the global economy, driven by geopolitical tensions, climate shocks and rising demand for critical inputs. To stay competitive and protect continuity, businesses need to rethink their sourcing, supply chain design and risk management strategies.
Aiste Bijune
Global Economic Outlook: Q1 2026
27 Feb 26Global growth is expected to remain resilient in 2026. Accommodative monetary policy, more agile supply chains and surging AI investment will sustain expansion, but not restore more robust momentum. Shifting trade policies and persistent geopolitical risks will keep growth constrained and uneven across markets. Emerging economies, led by India and ASEAN, are set to be the main engines of global growth.
Aiste Bijune
Venezuela Regime Change Set to Influence Global Oil Markets, Geopolitical Dynamics, and Business Strategies
7 Jan 26The first year of Trump’s presidency was marked by significant uncertainty over tariffs, whilst the second year begins with the emergence of new geopolitical risks following the US capture of Venezuela’s head of state. This development introduces heightened uncertainty that extends beyond Venezuela, with implications across multiple regions. While global businesses face shifting geopolitical dynamics, the potential increased oil supply over the long term could help reduce energy price pressures.
Euromonitor International
Global Economic Outlook: Q4 2025
27 Nov 25The global economy continues to adapt to the changing trade landscape, and is demonstrating resilience, on the back of lower interest rates, easing inflation, a speedy reorganisation of global supply chains and the negotiation of trade deals between the US and its key trading partners. Nevertheless, higher tariff levels and ongoing policy uncertainty cloud the outlook.
Aiste Bijune
FMCG Sustainability in 2025: Navigating Volatility with Purpose
18 Nov 25In a year shaped by geopolitical shocks and constant disruptions, sustainable FMCG products are unexpectedly holding their ground.
Jorge Zuniga
US-China Trade Tensions 2025: Three Likely Outcomes Amid Shifting Dynamics
27 Oct 25As the US-China trade truce deadline approaches in November, tensions between the world’s largest trading partners are reigniting. China’s new export controls on rare earths and the US’ threat of sweeping 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports have pushed relations to a new brink. Against this backdrop, the upcoming late-October negotiation meeting between Presidents Trump and President Xi carries high stakes. While both sides are likely to favour extending the trade truce reached in May and pull back some policies to avoid sudden supply-chain shocks, the risk of either a limited deal or a sharp escalation remains high, leaving global markets and trade flows on edge.
Euromonitor International
Global Economic Outlook: Q3 2025
25 Aug 25The global economy began adapting to a shifting trade landscape and demonstrated resilience in H1 2025, supported by easing energy prices and front-loading trade activity. However, fresh US tariff hikes and persistent uncertainty are set to constrain global growth from H2 2025.
Euromonitor International
MoneyLIVE North America
The Radisson Blu Aqua Hotel, Chicago 221 N Columbus Dr S, Chicago, IL 60601 15 September 2025 09:15 CTMoneyLIVE North America is one of the most influential events in the banking and payments industry across the USA and Canada.
Kendrick Sands
US-Vietnam Trade Deal: Key Things to Know
24 Jul 25On 2 July, a trade deal between the US and Vietnam was announced. Under the agreement, US goods will enter Vietnam duty-free, while the US will charge a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, instead of the 46% tariff announced in April. In addition, a new “transshipment” agreement was announced, which will charge a 40% tariff rate on goods from other countries that pass through Vietnam on the way to the US market. The new trade deal marks a significant milestone for Vietnam and will have an impact on production networks across Asia.
Euromonitor International
US Economy at Risk from Prolonged Tariff Policies
3 Jul 25Our economic growth forecasts for the US have been revised downwards for 2025 at the same time as inflation forecasts have risen. In this video, Lan Ha, Head of Insights for Economies and Consumers, examines the impact of continuing tariffs and escalations of the trade war, which could push the US economy into recession with inflation rising to 6-7%. This stagflation scenario complicates business strategies, threatening profit margins and requiring new growth avenues. However, scenario planning can help businesses navigate this uncertain environment and identify new growth opportunities.
Euromonitor International
Economic Volatility and Uncertainty Dominate Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
28 Apr 25The first 100 days of a US Presidency typically set the tone for the future administration. President Trump’s second term has started with chaos and uncertainty, marked by a global trade war, financial market turmoil, an increased risk of recession, spending and federal government cuts as well as threats of mass deportation. We present a summary of Euromonitor’s analysis published since Trump’s re-election, representing the uncertainty and rapid policy shifts at the time. Despite the turbulence, agile businesses can still find opportunities as global supply chains and consumer behaviour evolve.
Euromonitor International
Top Five Trends in Global Business Dynamics
26 Mar 25Global businesses are facing a highly uncertain environment, as growing geopolitical tensions and trade protectionist policies can accelerate the challenges of supply shortages, a tight labour market and lower productivity. Euromonitor identifies the top five trends in business dynamics that are shaping the global business landscape today and beyond.
Aiste Bijune
Trump Impact: Asia Pacific to See New Trade and Investment Dynamics
10 Mar 25With US President Donald Trump’s second term officially beginning from January 2025, momentum is building around significant changes to US trade policy, specifically around higher tariffs and restrictions aimed at reducing the US’s trade deficits.
Sowmya Ramaswami
What Is a Macro Model?
19 Feb 25A macro model is an analytical tool designed to replicate the operation of an economy—either global or national. Macroeconomic forecasts allow policymakers and business executives to stay ahead of risks and spot opportunities to compare different strategic options.
Euromonitor International
Global Economic Outlook: Q1 2025
18 Feb 25The global economy has started 2025 on a firm footing, on the back of easing inflation, improving financial conditions and a resilient performance by the US economy. Nevertheless, the outlook is fragile, with key risks stemming from heightened policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, compelling businesses to adapt their operations and supply chains for potential policy and economic shifts.
Aleksandra Svidler
Chart of the Month: Countries with Highest and Lowest Inflation Rates in 2025
30 Jan 25Our Chart of the Month series provides visuals that can help you navigate economic uncertainty and make informed decisions on spending, investment, and consumer engagement. This month, we are looking at global inflation.
Euromonitor International
Trump’s Renewed Presidency: Effects on Economy, Inflation, Trade and Emerging Markets
22 Nov 24Potential policy changes under a renewed Trump presidency could have far-reaching effects on the US and global economies. Proposed tax cuts may deliver short-term boosts to investment and income in the US but risk creating medium- and long-term challenges. Immigration and trade policy shifts are likely to drive higher inflationary pressures domestically and globally, while increased tariffs could disrupt international trade and accelerate efforts by companies to de-risk and diversify supply chains.
Euromonitor International