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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Denmark

Dec 2010

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

Delivery method: instant download
Report format: PDF doc_pdf.png (download a sample)
Market statistics: Excel workbook doc_excel_table.png (download a sample)

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Denmark with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Denmark, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Denmark market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Denmark?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Denmark?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Denmark, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A fragile exit from the financial crisis

The Danish economy entered recession in the fourth quarter of 2007 and exited it in the first quarter of 2010. GDP decreased in 2008 and 2009 to start a slow recovery of 1% growth in 2010. House prices and private consumption both started to recover in 2010. Unemployment and an early increase in interest rates, however, continue to threaten the economic recovery. Unemployment reached 7% in 2010, with recovery expected in 2011.

Low interest rates to continue

Low interest rates and large government stimulus package are at the core of economic recovery and so an increase in interest rates could force Denmark into a double-dip recession. The Greek crisis is putting new pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep interest rates low and it is now not expected that the ECB will increase interest rates until early 2011. When the ECB eventually does raise interest rates it is expected that it will be a slow and gradual increase, only exceeding 2% towards the end of 2012. Denmark is expected to increase interest rates in the middle of 2011 and by no more than 1%. The cost of borrowing reached its lowest in 2010 since the Danish Central Bank was established in 1818. According to Realkredit Danmark, it is now possible for homeowners to obtain an interest-free loan.

Danish homeowners some of the heaviest in debt

The US government has identified Danish homeowners as the highest in debt in the world. Debt in Denmark is higher than in Spain, Ireland and Portugal, all countries identified as having large outstanding debts. Debt accumulated during the economic boom of the 1990s and early 2000s. The Danish mortgage system greatly contributed to housing prices climbing tremendously over this period, firstly by making it easy to get a loan (which caused supply for housing to outstrip demand and prices soared), and, secondly, policies such as interest- only mortgage loans introduced in 2003 caused mortgage gross lending to increase by 104% in that year alone. Danes, therefore, have significant housing debt and the market slump has resulted in many homeowners facing negative equity. This has negatively affected many people’s credit worthiness and both consumer confidence and consumer spending has slumped as a result. That said, Denmark has received an Aaa rating for economic stability from Moody’s as the country is actively reducing its national debt.

Danish outlook

The Danish economy will most likely continue to recover over the forecast period as long as interest rates are kept low enough, for long enough, and no other major event unfolds. GDP is thus expected to grow slowly but at an increasing rate over the forecast period, while unemployment will continue to rise in 2010 but then very slowly start to fall. Unemployment will continue to cast a shadow over the economy as it is expected to remain high for the duration of the forecast period. A slow recovery also means that both consumer credit gross lending and mortgage gross lending will increase slowly over the forecast period. Consumer credit is expected to grow slightly faster over the forecast period than mortgage lending, with auto gross lending increasing the fastest, followed by education gross lending.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Denmark - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A fragile exit from the financial crisis

Low interest rates to continue

Danish homeowners some of the heaviest in debt

Danish outlook

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Fragile economic recovery

Unsecured loans decline along with consumer spending

Mortgages and home lending recover

Auto lending recovers strongly

Increased credit card adoption drives card lending

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

Mortgages/housing

Consumer credit

Auto lending

Card lending

Home lending

Durables lending

Education lending

Other personal lending

Non-performing

Gross lending

Outstanding balance

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Denmark - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Unsecured short-term loans declined significantly more than any other loan type at an estimated 12% in terms of outstanding balance compared to an average 7% in other consumer credit outstanding balances.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Danske Bank is the biggest player in consumer credit and has also been impacted the most by the global financial crisis. Low interest rates, high loan losses and household credit that continues to worsen are the main concerns for the major institutions. Signs of economic recovery in 2010 represent the tipping point that large traditional lenders have been waiting for, and almost all major banks’ first quarter results have beat previous forecasts.

PROSPECTS

  • Consumer credit is expected to grow slowly at a CAGR of 4-5% in terms of both gross lending and outstanding balance as a result of tighter credit conditions from primary lenders combined with increased disposable incomes which will dampen credit demand.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Size
  • Non-performing vs Others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance % growth
  • Outstanding Balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending % growth
  • Gross Lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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