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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Indonesia

Dec 2010

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Indonesia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Indonesia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Indonesia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Indonesia?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Indonesia?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Indonesia, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Consumer lending performance picks up in 2010

The consumer lending industry in Indonesia is far from reaching maturity and double-digit annual value growth in outstanding balance and gross lending continued throughout the review period. However, notably slower growth was recorded in gross lending and outstanding balance in 2009 as the global economic crisis exerted a negative influence. Indonesian borrowers exhibited a more cautious approach, although Indonesia itself did not experience a full-blown recession, suffering only slower economic growth. Economic growth in Indonesia improved notably in 2010 as stronger growth was recorded in various sectors including the real estate market and the automotive industry. Bank Indonesia’s lower interest rate also allowed lending banks to offer lower interest rates for loans, especially mortgages/housing lending. All of these factors added up to the stronger performance registered in consumer lending during 2010.

Card lending continues surging as credit card usage becomes more popular

Card lending posted the best performance in consumer lending in Indonesia during 2010 in terms of gross lending value growth as the solid growth registered in card lending throughout the review period continued. Credit card penetration is still quite low in Indonesia, although credit card ownership did expand over the review period. However, the growth registered in card lending outstanding balance was comparatively low as many credit card borrowers in Indonesia pay their credit card bills promptly. The strongest growth in outstanding balance in 2010 was in education lending, one of the newer types of consumer lending to emerge in Indonesia during the review period.

Mortgages/housing lending remains comparatively low

While in many countries mortgages/housing lending is the most common type of loan for consumers to take and accounts for the highest proportion of consumer lending outstanding balance, this is not the case in Indonesia. While housing remains one of the most basic and common big-ticket purchases, Indonesians tend to live with their parents until they get married, affecting demand for mortgages/housing lending. Furthermore, when purchasing a home, it is still a common practice for Indonesians to buy first purchase land and then have a house built on it, rather than buying a ready-made house or apartment. Purchasing empty land does not often require a mortgage loan from a bank or other mortgage lender. With this in mind, it is perhaps unsurprising that the proportion of mortgages/housing loans is still not the highest in consumer lending in Indonesia.

Auto lending is the most common type of loan for Indonesian borrowers

In contrast to the limited demand for mortgages/housing lending, auto lending remained very popular in Indonesia during the review period. Auto loans are quite common for several reasons. First, public transport infrastructure in Indonesia is still not of a very high standard, leading consumers to purchase their own vehicles. Car ownership in Indonesia is, however, quite costly, so many consumers opt for motorcycles instead. To make motorcycle ownership more affordable, consumers often purchase their motorcycle by taking out a loan. In fact, the majority of motorcycle purchases during the review period were financed through loans. As a result, even low income Indonesians can own a motorcycle. The number of motorcycles on the road in Indonesia increased dramatically during the review period and auto lending, the majority of which were accounted for by motorcycle loans, constitutes the highest proportion of consumer lending in Indonesia.

Robust growth to continue for consumer lending in forecast period

Consumer lending in Indonesia is still in its growth phase as banks only began to turn their attention away from business loans to consumer loans during the 2000s. Therefore, the future prospects for consumer lending in Indonesia seem to be very bright. Gross lending growth is expected to remain robust in consumer lending over the forecast period and double-digit constant value growth is expected in each year of the forecast period. Outstanding balance growth will also be strong, although it will trail the performance of gross lending as the majority of loans issued in Indonesia over the forecast period will continue to constitute relatively low value loans with short repayment periods rather than being long term loans for large sums such as for mortgages/housing loans. Of all types of consumer lending, card lending will post the fastest growth in percentage terms over the forecast period as credit card usage is expected to rise over forecast period in line with the overall trend towards higher levels of card payment. Meanwhile, the currently small but rapidly emerging education loans will also increase in visibility and importance over the forecast period as more education lending schemes are likely to be introduced by banks following the pioneering efforts of a handful of banks late in the review period.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Indonesia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Consumer lending performance picks up in 2010

Card lending continues surging as credit card usage becomes more popular

Mortgages/housing lending remains comparatively low

Auto lending is the most common type of loan for Indonesian borrowers

Robust growth to continue for consumer lending in forecast period

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Consumer lending booms as the concepts of loans and financing grow

Banks turn to consumer lending to fuel their lending business

Mortgages/housing loan growth stays strong with the aid of urbanisation

Motorcycle ownership continues to surge, fuelling growth in auto lending

Growing usage of financial cards for payment purposes drives card lending

State-owned banks attempt to increase presence in consumer lending

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

Mortgages/housing

Consumer credit

Auto lending

Card lending

Home lending

Durables lending

Education lending

Other personal lending

Non-performing

Gross lending

Outstanding balance

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Indonesia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • 2010 emerged as another strong year for consumer credit in Indonesia as much more confidence in the economy signalled an end to the uncertainties which limited growth during 2009 amidst the negative effects of the global economic recession. A more cautious atmosphere prevailed in Indonesia during 2008/09, despite the fact that the country was not hit by economic recession. With a stronger economic outlook and more confidence exhibited by key players, consumer credit posted much stronger growth during 2010 in both gross lending and outstanding balance.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • On the whole, private banks had a bigger share of consumer lending in Indonesia than state-owned banks during the review period, as well as a bigger share of consumer credit. Bank Central Asia (BCA) and Bank Danamon in particular held leading positions while numerous other banks achieved success after inaugurating their consumer lending operations in the middle of the review period. BCA’s outstanding balance in 2009 was Rp23 trillion, over half of which come from its KKB and KTA loans. Auto loans account for the biggest share of BCA’s consumer lending business, reflecting the primary position of auto lending within consumer credit as a whole in Indonesia. For Bank Danamon, KPR and KKB loans form the core of its consumer lending business.

PROSPECTS

  • Consumer credit continues to have a bright future in Indonesia as Indonesian consumers are still very much in the process of becoming accustomed to turning to banks and other financial institutions in order to borrow money. As such, growth in consumer credit will benefit from the ongoing expansion of the consumer base for loans, especially thanks to the expected growth in Indonesia’s banked population, which will be the result of both urbanisation and the active efforts of banks and other financial institutions.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Size
  • Non-performing vs Others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance % growth
  • Outstanding Balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending % growth
  • Gross Lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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