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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Japan

Dec 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Japanese take on more loans

Japanese consumers started to take on more loans in 2012. This was due to improved consumer demand due to growing card lending, in particular credit card lending, while the earthquake of March 2011 and the 2010 instalment sales law slowed down the growth of card lending over the review period. With the considerable loss in payday loans, financial institutions were very proactive in increasing card transaction spending among existing cardholders, with the promotion of discounts and reward points, as well as revolving payments. These loans by credit card are not considered long-term debts by the majority of Japanese consumers who prefer to pay off their debts in the next month.

Mortgage shows a sign of recovery

In 2012, the housing market saw a positive improvement as a result of the increase in new housing starts. This was driven by the continued reduction in the housing tax rate and the Eco-point system for housing offered to first-time homebuyers. In addition, the increased reconstruction demand for housing in the Tohoku region due to the March 2011 earthquake had a positive impact on the housing market. However, with the end of the Eco-point system for housing in 2012, this will pose downward pressure on the performance of mortgage loans over the forecast period despite reconstructive efforts in Tohoku.

An historically low interest rate for mortgage loans

Financial institutions accelerated competition over mortgage loans by offering the lowest ever level for a 10-year fixed interest rate, 1.3% introduced in 2012 in the history of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, for example. Banks, in particular megabanks with sound financial stability, became more aggressive in selecting potential customers and used the historically low interest rate for mortgage loans as a way to attract affluent new consumers. Consumers also became less thrifty and were willing to acquire debts, with the wide variety of government incentive programmes to encourage the purchase of new/used housing. The expected consumption tax increase in 2014-15 also played a large role in pushing consumers towards mortgage loans in order to save on tax.

Organisational restructuring started for the recovery of payday loan

  • The introduction of the 2010 Money Lending Business Law did not only impact the payday loan market, where unsecured purpose-free consumer loans are major financial instruments for high-risk borrowers, but also affected the wider consumer finance market. This led many of the large banks to accelerate their organisational restructuring by incorporating payday loan companies into parent banking groups, following the Shinsei Bank’s acquisition of Lake in 2011 and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Group’s merger with Promise Co Ltd in 2012. With an absence of control over banks under the 2010 Money Lending Business Law, banks became aggressive in moving into the consumer finance market. Banks will leverage their purchased subsidiary companies to increase their presence in the market.

Defaults on the rise

  • Non-performing loans, which are delays in repayment, increased over the review period in particular mortgage loans. Non-performing loans are a result from an increasing pressure on the repayment ability of households in the context of diminishing disposable income in terms of paying off their mortgage loans. In addition, as the majority of mortgage owners purchased flexible interest rate loans, which are tied to fluctuations in the capital market, should interest rates in capital markets rise, the mortgage owners will face further pressure on their repayment plans. Therefore, this upward trend of defaults in mortgage loans should be a warning sign for mortgage loan providers over the forecast period. The non-performing mortgage loans by regional banks are generally higher than that by megabanks as megabanks are more diversified against mortgage loans.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Japan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Japan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Japan?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Japan?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Japan, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Japan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Japanese take on more loans

Mortgage shows a sign of recovery

An historically low interest rate for mortgage loans

Organisational restructuring started for the recovery of payday loan

Defaults on the rise

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Boosting Housing market

Recovering prospects for consumer finance industry

Borrowers having less options to lend

More changes in the Japanese banking landscape after the new regulation

Competition over interest rates accelerates

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2012-2017
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2012-2017

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Japan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • 2012 witnessed a bounced back year of growth with a 0.3% consumer credit gross lending growth rate compared to a decline of 1% in the previous year. This growth was driven by a better understanding of the Money Lending Business Law among borrowers, as they initially misread the law prohibiting all kinds of consumer lending. However, promotional activities of lenders and Japan Financial Services Association helped consumers to understand that the total volume limit can only restrict lending which exceeds more than one third of their annual income, and that mortgage loans and automotive loans are not included in this restriction. Meanwhile, lenders such as Acom Co Ltd, which saw their financial position deteriorate due to a considerable amount of claims for overpayment of interest, gradually repaired the damage with financial aid from their parent companies. This enabled consumer credit to start recovering in 2012.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Payday loan lenders in Japan have faced very tight lending standards as a result of the full execution of the Money Lending Business Law in 2010. These regulations forced lenders to restrict the maximum lending amount that can be lent to one-third of the borrower’s annual income and lowered the cap on the highest interest rate from 29.5% to 15-20%. Due to the new, lower cap, existing borrowers were entitled to claim back overpaid interest from lenders, following a 2006 Supreme Court decision. The landmark law and decision have had a very strong impact on payday loan lenders in Japan. For example, the tight lending regulation reduced the top line sales of Takefuji Corporation, which was a top four payday loan lender in Japan, by 60%, from ¥315 billion in 2006 to ¥120 billion in 2010. The Supreme Court decision gave a further burden to the company, resulting in it going bankrupt with ¥433 billion in liabilities in 2010. Another giant payday loan lender, Aiful Corporation, had similar results, with ¥300 billion in liabilities in 2010. Between April 2011 and April 2012, Aiful Corporation continued to respond to the repayment claims of ¥27 billion.

PROSPECTS

  • Overall consumer credit outstanding balance is forecast to decline with a constant value CAGR of -0.4% over the forecast period to reach ¥48,903 billion in 2017. This decline is weaker than that seen during the review period. The weak economic recovery for Japan has affected the way the Japanese see their debt levels and responsibilities. In a Japan Financial Services Association study in 2011, 88% Japanese indicated that they did not plan to increase their debt level in coming years for better living standards, while 12% planned to do so.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2012-2017
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2012-2017

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Consumer credit by type
  • Non-performing vs others loans
  • Other personal lending by type

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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