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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Poland

Oct 2011

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Poland with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Poland, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Poland market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Poland?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Poland?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Poland, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New T-recommendation results in tightened credit conditions

In December 2010, Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego (Polish Financial Supervision Authority) forced banks to introduce the new T-recommendation, which tightens the conditions of receiving loans. As a result, it will be much more difficult to obtain consumer credit and essential groups of Poles will suffer from lack of solvency. According to T-recommendation, loans will not be granted to those who already have other commitments with total monthly instalments exceeding half of their monthly income. Additionally, with regard to consumers earning more than the national average, they have the possibility to obtain a loan when their current instalments do not absorb more than 65% of their monthly income.

Limited access to mortgages

The demand for mortgages remained high. However, problems appeared when paying back loans by consumers who were already encumbered with previous loans and faced a difficult situation on the labour market. Such adverse circumstances caused banks to gradually tighten the conditions for granting mortgages. Moreover, the T-recommendation requires that the consumer is obliged to have at least 20% their own contribution, which additionally limited access to mortgages. Mortgages were also affected by introducing an unfavourable amendment in “Rodzina na Swoim” (“Family’s Own Home’”) programme, which is a governmental assistance programme for mortgages.

Credit cards– no longer dynamic with modest growth

The boom for credit cards in Poland remarkably passed. Nowadays, this is not as fast a developing banking product as it previously was during the economic slowdown. Firstly, the saturation of credit cards among Poles significantly grew. Secondly, banks are not so eager to issue new credit cards, especially due to the fact that the economic slowdown brought about problems with repaying debts by some of their customers. On the other hand, some holders appreciate the advantages of a credit card and treat it as a kind of short-term loan without interest.

Auto lending starts to recover

After the slowdown in 2008 and 2009, since late 2010 signs of recovery have appeared in auto lending in Poland. Banks specialised in automotives, have closely cooperated with automobile dealers in order to finance consumer purchase of new vehicles. Additionally, universal banks credited both the purchase of new and second hand cars. A boom in the last quarter of 2010 resulted from concerns related to the expected rise of car prices, which arose from changes of VAT announced by the Polish Ministry of Finance.

Growing inflation makes credit more expensive

At the end of the review period, the Polish economy suffered from a growing inflation rate. Rada Polityki Pienieznej (Monetary Policy Council) as the main authority in Poland responsible for price stability in the country was forced to take action reducing the inflationary process in the economy. One of its statutory tools is the regulation of interest rates and that is actually what the Monetary Policy Council is doing. Between January and June 2011, the Monetary Policy Council quadrupled interest rates, in January, May and June, each time by 25 base points. As a result, the basic interest rate amounts to 4.5% on an annual basis. The actions of the Monetary Policy Council clearly impacted the costs of loans taken out by consumers. These costs have risen since the beginning of 2011.

T-recommendation – afraid of a future

T-recommendation aims to protect Poles from excessive debt. However, this regulation applies only to financial institutions (banks), while the whole of non-banking institutions (such as Provident) is out of the range of the validity of that act. Thus, market specialists are afraid that the T-recommendation will discourage many clients, especially those who do not have a solvency, to run into debt in semi-bank institutions, which are regarded as less safe than banks.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Poland - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New T-recommendation results in tightened credit conditions

Limited access to mortgages

Credit cards– no longer dynamic with modest growth

Auto lending starts to recover

Growing inflation makes credit more expensive

T-recommendation – afraid of a future

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Unstable material situation of Poles – difficulties with acquiring mortgages

Breakthrough in auto lending

Recovery of instalment credits after economic slowdown

Changes in regulation impact consumer lending and credit

Internet plays a more important role in lending

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Poland - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2011, gross lending of consumer credit in Poland grew by 7% in comparison with 2010, which is a sign of recovery for the category. Due to the fact that the same indicator in 2010 was at the level of 2%, it is noticeable that consumer credit in Poland is increasing. The main reason for such growth is improving the financial situation of major Polish households and rising rate of consumers’ optimism.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • PKO Bank Polski SA, Pekao SA and Bank Zachodni WBK SA are the largest consumer credit lenders in Poland. At the end of 2010, the share of PKO Bank Polski SA amounted to 17% in terms of consumer credit outstanding balance while its share in mortgage outstanding balance reached 23%. In addition, the bank ranks fourth in terms of the number of issued credit cards (12% share at the end of 2010).

PROSPECTS

  • Lending standards are expected to be further tightened over the forecast period. Creditworthiness of many Poles will decrease together with the growing cost of credit. Market specialists expect a further increase in interest rates by the Monetary Policy Council. Anticipated reaction of banks will be the rise of interest rates of granted loans. It is likely that commercial banks will apply a strategy of a single high rise of interest rates instead of increasing interest rates several times following each decision by the Monetary Policy Council. Some banks will fear dissatisfaction from their clients, resulting from frequent (every one or two months) rise in interest rates. Moreover, some banks simply do not wish to be the first to apply such a solution; therefore it is expected that banks will very closely observe their competitors and follow their solutions.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Non-performing vs others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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