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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Portugal

Nov 2010

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

Delivery method: instant download
Report format: PDF doc_pdf.png (download a sample)
Market statistics: Excel workbook doc_excel_table.png (download a sample)

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Portugal with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Portugal, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Portugal market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Portugal?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Portugal?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Portugal, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic downturn/recovery uncertainty impacts consumer lending

The impacts of the international and national economic crisis on consumer lending are correlated with the uncertainty that surrounds the economic recovery. Even after the worst of the 2009 economic downturn seems to be over, consumer lending still shows a record decrease of credit contracted by the Portuguese population. The biggest fall was recorded in mortgage/housing lending, with a decrease of 12% in 2009 compared to a 2% decline in 2008, and this type of lending is expected to further decline by 7% in 2010. Although auto, durables and education lending is increasing in 2010, home and especially other personal lending continues to decline. The increasing number of non-performing loans has resulted in increased spread margins, and tighter banking demands relating to new mortgage loans. Although housing credit conceded in December 2009 increased, it did not change the diminishing trend of consumer lending that was registered throughout the year, but it may indicate that the worse might be over. The consumer lending market is depending on the recovery of the economy and on the decrease of the unemployment rate.

Government regulation impacts consumer lending and credit

A new set of regulations has emerged from the Portuguese government as an attempt to protect consumers from excessive bank lending risks. These new regulations impose limits on how much credit can be granted and on the rates that banks can charge for transferring credit from one bank to another, or when repaying their loan before the contracted date. This type of regulation aims to reduce the increasing number of non-performing loans registered in consumer credit, and bring more competitiveness to the credit concession. Other regulations were put in place in October 2009 in order to further protect consumers (as an example, the new Effective Reviewed Annual Rate (TAEG) regulation).

Tighter banking demands on consumer lending

After the sub-prime crisis originated the interbank lending crisis, Portuguese banks increased their demands on consumer mortgage lending and their spreads. On a normal mortgage credit lending banks now only lend a lesser percentage of the total amount required. In this context, banks are also evaluating house prices at lower rates, as they no longer believe that home prices will continue to rise. Since the interbank lending crisis began and the rate of non-performing loans increased, banks have been more cautious when lending money, resulting in an increase of their lending spreads. These events have resulted in an overall decrease in mortgage lending.

Innovation in banking

The innovation in banking keeps recording major advances. The introduction of contactless smart cards started in the beginning of 2010. The MB Phone is at an early stage, with only some of the future functionalities already in place (ie, like purchasing football tickets through the mobile phone). Whereas the possibility of designing one’s own card is already in place, the consumer can choose the functionalities of the card, such as in which networks it can be used, capacity to be used in ATM machines and/or POS terminals, as well as defining the credit payment methods and insurances associated with the “Made by” card from Grupo Caixa Geral de Depositos (CGD).

A new consumer has risen

In the aftermath of the economic crisis a new consumer will have risen, more conscious of his payment options and credit-wise. The types of habits related to financial payments are changing; firstly influenced by the crisis, an overall change in consumer habits is defining itself. Portugal is the number one country in Europe regarding automatic electronic payments operations without taking internet payments into account. This is due to the success of the Multibanco (ATM) and Via Verde networks (the latter network being a Portuguese invention). This new type of consumer is vastly outnumbering the old type of cash and checks consumer, resulting in a more electronic-based economy. Moreover, the progressive market implantation of store cards and pre-paid cards is changing consumer habits into a more digital society.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Portugal - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic downturn/recovery uncertainty impacts consumer lending

Government regulation impacts consumer lending and credit

Tighter banking demands on consumer lending

Innovation in banking

A new consumer has risen

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Is the worst over?

Government regulation facing the financial market

New, stricter demands

Innovation is key theme

Consumers are becoming more rational

MARKET DATA

DEFINITIONS

Mortgages/housing

Consumer credit

Auto lending

Card lending

Home lending

Durables lending

Education lending

Other personal lending

Non-performing

Gross lending

Outstanding balance

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Size
  • Non-performing vs Others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance % growth
  • Outstanding Balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending % growth
  • Gross Lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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