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Country Report

Consumer Lending in Vietnam

Jan 2013

Price: US$900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Negative impacts from economic condition lead to slower growth

Higher inflation rate and lower GDP growth have resulted in worsening living conditions for many Vietnamese, especially low- and mid-income people, who continuously have to find ways to cope with rising living costs and tighter spending budget. As these groups make up most of the total population, the overall living standard in whole country is declining as people cut back purchases on unnecessary items. Many people fear the instable economic situation will lead to other problems, such as losing their jobs or even higher prices of daily necessities, such as grocery and fuel. This is leading to a lower growth for consumer lending, as people prefer to save rather than spend.

Interest rate remains high despite government’s efforts in lowering it

By the fourth quarter of 2012, the interest rate of commercial loans averaged about 9% to 10%. Even though it was much lower compared to the average 14% at the end of 2011, it was still considered too high by most people, especially in Vietnamese culture, where borrowing from friends and relatives interest-free is still a common and unembarrassing practice. Thus, the costs of borrowing from banks and other financial companies are expensive, which deters people from taking loans. Most people prefer to ask around from people they know first, and taking loans usually would be the last alternative.

Microcredit players continue to dominate

As microcredit continues to account for more than half of total gross consumer lending, microcredit players still hold the major slice of the market in 2012. Whilst commercial lenders find it hard to counteract the negative impacts of the economy and high interest rates, microcredit lenders find more opportunities as there are more rural and poor families in need of extra money. Even though the amount of each microcredit loan tends to be much lower than a commercial loan, the number of borrowers is so huge that total gross lending amount exceeds that of commercial loans.

Simpler procedure as a method to counter slowing performance

Many banks and financial companies have focused on improving their service quality in 2011 and 2012 as a way to compete in the crowded market. As more and more players enter consumer lending, competition becomes even tougher. Besides, consumers are also becoming younger, more knowledgeable and well educated. Thus, they tend to be more demanding and prefer players which provide more professional and friendly services. This trend will carry on strongly over the forecast period.

Card lending will lead growth whilst microcredit continues to drive the market

Although credit cards will remain a niche market of the high-income consumers, it is expected to sustain high growth thanks to its modern image, which helps to attract the young and wealthy urban people. Besides, microcredit will see slowing growth due to its huge size. However, it will still make up a major portion of total gross consumer lending by the end of the forecast period.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in Vietnam with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in Vietnam, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in Vietnam market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in Vietnam?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in Vietnam?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in Vietnam, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in Vietnam - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Negative impacts from economic condition lead to slower growth

Interest rate remains high despite government’s efforts in lowering it

Microcredit players continue to dominate

Simpler procedure as a method to counter slowing performance

Card lending will lead growth whilst microcredit continues to drive the market

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Worsening economic conditions have negative impact on growth

Slower mortgage lending growth as a result of stagnant real estate market

Microcredit makes up the major portion of consumer lending

Less complicated procedure brings more borrowers

Interest rates remain high

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2007-2012
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2012-2017
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2012-2017

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in Vietnam - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2012, although consumer credit is continuing to grow strongly, the growth rate has slowed down compared to the early review period. Consumers were more cautious with taking bank loans due to negative economic conditions in 2011 and the previous years, which reduced their purchasing power and damped consumer confidence. Inflation in 2011 reached 19%, whilst GDP growth remained low, below 6%. In 2012, the situation is not expected to be very good as well with inflation forecast to be 12% and GDP growth just slightly higher than 6%. Due to high inflation – which results in quickly rising CPI – and low GDP growth, consumers have become more frugal and cut down their budget on leisure, travelling, expensive items and entertainment, which lowers their need to borrow money.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Leaders in the consumer credit sector for the regular consumers are similar to those in financial cards, including Vietcombank, East Asia Commercial Bank, Vietinbank and Asia Commercial Bank. These banks have strong brand names, and consumers remember them whenever they need any bank-related product, including loans. As lending rates from most banks are similar to each other, consumers have not many reasons to look for any banks other than the one they usually go to.

PROSPECTS

  • Outstanding balance of consumer credit is expected to grow with a constant value CAGR of 6% during the forecast period. Vietnamese consumers will continue to practice caution when taking loans from banks or other financial institutions. Negative economic conditions in 2011-2012 have taught most people the lesson of frugality, and this characteristic will most likely stay at least in the near term. Some economists and analysts point to a gloomy forecast for 2013, and expect the economy to recover at the earliest only from 2014 onwards. This will have a heavy impact on the consumer credit sector due to low consumer confidence.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2007-2012
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2007-2012
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2012-2017
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2012-2017
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2012-2017

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Consumer credit by type
  • Non-performing vs others loans
  • Other personal lending by type

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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