The latest edition of our Global Economic Forecast report has launched for Q1 2020, looking at the quarterly macro changes for the world’s key economies and what these mean to our view of the likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the global economy.
Our baseline global GDP growth forecast has remained stable since Q4 2019 at around 3% in 2020 (similar to 2019), improving slightly to 3.2% growth in 2021. This reflects offsetting effects of improvements in the US and Japan outlooks, countered by a worsening outlook for the Eurozone and India.
Positive factors in the outlook remain above average, this includes consumer confidence in key economies, supportive monetary policy and low financial system stress. Negative factors in the outlook include ongoing geopolitical and trade war risks, declining business confidence, high corporate debt levels in key economies, as well as the recent uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak.
The January 2020 US-China phase one trade deal has eased the risks and uncertainty surrounding a trade-war escalation since the end of 2019. This implies a significant reduction in the probability of the All-Out US-China War Scenario, though risks of re-escalating trade tensions remain.
On the other hand, the recent coronavirus outbreak in China may easily cut 0.1–0.3% off our 2020 global GDP growth forecast once more precise data about its impact in Q1 is available. As the outbreak spreads more significantly on a global scale, risks of a downturn in consumer spending, reduction in business investment and production will need to be addressed.
The UK exited the EU in January 2020 and is currently going through a transition period. Even though the UK is technically out of the EU and its governing institutions, the Brexit saga and uncertainty will continue throughout 2020 as the UK and the EU must negotiate a future Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in the transitory period running until the end of 2020.
Euromonitor International’s new macroeconomic outlook, Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2020 provides the latest Euromonitor International macroeconomic forecasts, assessment of the global economy, discussion of recent events and a deeper analysis of key economies. Download Global Economic Forecasts: Q1 2020 to stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.