The report examines key factors in supply chain risks in metals, energy and agricultural commodities. Production, market supply concentration and political risks analysis can help to better identify potential risks and prepare for potential disruptions. The briefing also identifies key industrial sectors and countries that are most vulnerable to commodity supply disruptions.
This report comes in PPT.
In 2021, global B2B and government sectors spent USD10.8 trillion to purchase agricultural, energy and mined commodities. Increases in commodity prices in 2022 significantly contributed to increased manufacturing costs and added to the global inflationary pressures.
Production concentration increased for a large number of commodities over 2017-2021. This was in large part driven by rising demand for commodities in Asia and growth in commodities production, as Asian countries rushed to satisfy expanding domestic demand.
Market supply concentration for several critical commodities increased over 2017-2021. Shifts to green energy and consequent growing demand for metals, rising geopolitical risks and the absence of alternative supplies are forecast to increase the supply risks in the medium term.
Production and supply concentration of metals is the highest among the analysed commodities, largely due to the dominance of Asian countries. The absence of metal deposits in other regions, growing B2B demand in Asia and long mining project planning cycles contribute to the high concentration in the sector.
Climate change is the main risk factor that could affect supplies of agricultural commodities. Lack of diversification in the food sector and high reliance on commodities such as soybeans further increase the supply risks.
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