Economy, Finance and Trade: Uganda

March 2022

Uganda’s economy followed a path of recovery in 2021, although GDP remained well-below the historical average due to COVID-19-related lockdown measures and subdued growth in exports. Meanwhile, public debt increased, due to higher expenditure on the COVID-19 support package. Nevertheless, the country continues to invest heavily in the development of its infrastructure, while also managing to maintain a low rate of inflation.

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Overview:

The Country Briefings series examine market potential, economic and consumer trends impacting each country and how they are set to change.

Each Country Briefing covers one of these topics:

Economy, Finance and Trade: Understanding the structure, health and potential risks of an economy are important for decision-making within an existing operating environment as well as for expansion strategies. Real GDP growth, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations will directly impact consumer market potential. Import and export trade profiles help gauge how open an economy is to trade and investment, while analysis of government finances can be used to explore macroeconomic stability and susceptibility to economic shocks.

Income and Expenditure: Insights into income, wealth and expenditure of consumers are vital in helping businesses make strategic decisions with regards to which country (or even which region within a country) to enter, which consumer segment to target, which products or services to market, and at which price point. Other factors such as the size and expansion of the middle class and income inequality are also important in helping companies gauge the potential of a country market.

Households: Global shifts in gender, ageing, migration and housing are transforming the size, location,  general make-up as well as income and expenditure of households around the globe, with diverse implications for governments and companies. Households insights can help identify the decision-making processes and consumption tastes of different household groups and types within a country, and assess household appliance and digital readiness that is key for formulating market technology and internet strategies.

Business Dynamics: A stable and competitive business environment is vital to operate efficiently and attract inward investment. Businesses can assess these factors alongside challenges such as corruption, political instability and terrorism, also gain insight into business operating environment and make strategic investment decisions. Transport infrastructure, ICT readiness and labour force dynamics will also identify potential issues with a supply chain and the level of workforce skills.

Commodities: Insights on key sectors directly related to the environmental commodities of a country such as energy, water, pollution, environmental resilience, forest and biodiversity and food and agriculture help businesses to make strategic decisions in relation to environmental and commodities trends, improve brand reputation and ensure long-term operations while ultimately growing the bottom line.

The briefings cover 103 countries and identify topics of crucial interest to planners, marketers and researchers.

Economy, Finance and Trade: Uganda

HEADLINES

Uganda is poised to witness robust long-term economic growth, but a subdued vaccination campaign poses challenges
Inflation is set to increase over the medium term
Evolving gold refinery network stimulates imports, but a new gold levy strains its exports
FDI is expected to pick up thanks to new oil facility, while newly emerging industrial parks are set to spur socioeconomic development
Uganda proceeds with its industrialisation efforts, despite rising public debt
Chart 1 Economic Landscape of Uganda: 2021-2040
Chart 2 Real GDP Growth in Uganda: 2010-2040
Chart 3 GDP Size and Growth: 2016-2040
Chart 4 Gross Value Added by Sector in Uganda: 2021
Chart 5 Domestic Demand: 2016 and 2021
Chart 6 Standardised Business Confidence Index: 2010-2021
Chart 7 Productivity: 2016 and 2021
Chart 8 Productivity by Sector in Uganda: 2021
Chart 9 Monetary Landscape of Uganda: 2021
Chart 10 Inflation: 2010-2040
Chart 11 Average Inflation: 2010-2040
Chart 12 Interest Rates in Uganda: 2010-2022
Chart 13 Exchange Rates: 2010-2021
Chart 14 Money Supply Growth and Money Velocity in Uganda: 2015-2022
Chart 15 Foreign Trade Landscape of Uganda: 2021
Chart 16 Exports and Export Price Index in Uganda: 2014-2021
Chart 17 Exports by Commodity in Uganda: 2021
Chart 18 Top 10 Export Destinations: 2021
Chart 19 Imports and Import Price Index in Uganda: 2014-2021
Chart 20 Imports by Commodity in Uganda: 2021
Chart 21 Top 10 Import Origins: 2021
Chart 22 Investment Landscape of Uganda: 2020-2021
Chart 23 FDI intensity: 2020
Chart 24 Foreign Direct Investment in Uganda: 2015-2020
Chart 25 Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Uganda: 2010-2021
Chart 26 Government Budget Landscape of Uganda: 2021
Chart 27 Public Debt: 2021
Chart 28 Government Revenue: 2021
Chart 29 Government Expenditure: 2021
Chart 30 Government Expenditure by Economic Type in Uganda: 2021
Chart 31 Government Expenditure by Function in Uganda: 2021
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