Snacks: Half-Year Update 2022

December 2022

Snack sales are still being impacted by unprecedented historic events (eg the COVID-19 pandemic, war and inflation). The latest updates to Snacks Industry Forecast Model suggest that with prices on the rise, sales are expected to see a slowdown in volume growth and a more pronounced focus on value, although consumer spending on the category will remain resilient.

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Key Findings

Inflation is leading manufacturers to think more about cutting costs

With a sharp rise in inflation leading to higher costs of business (eg commodity price increases), a variety of measures to tame business costs are being undertaken. Notably, snack product price increases have contributed to snack growth, but not without consumer complaint regarding snack pricing actions.

Volume consumption struggles amidst higher costs of business and “shrinkflation”

Snack volumes are expected to see either downgrades or limited growth across markets. The higher prices of snacks are forcing consumers to make trade-offs in their purchases and even cut back on snacking in general. In addition, manufacturers’ shrinking of packages to control costs is also limiting volume growth expectations.

The value of snacking holds strong

Demand for snacks is set to retain its resiliency, given prompt and effective industry action. Snack players and consumers agree that sustainability and health-related issues are going to be highly impactful in the future, and thus will impact future innovation and growth in snacks.

Forecast recession and ongoing uncertainties will extend market behaviour shifts

Considering major historical events (eg the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation), manufacturers must re-evaluate their brands’ value propositions and ensure they are adapting to the relevant needs of consumers.

Scope
About this briefing
Key findings
Snacks are expected to maintain a strong sales outlook as consumer demand remains strong
In the near term, pricing actions amidst high inflation are driving value growth in snacks
Increased prices are justified by rising costs of commodities critical to formulations
Across markets, snack value sales are expected to grow with ample unmet market potential
The many layers of global inflation
On the other hand, volume growth is being challenged by inflationary pressures
As costs increase, some resort to pack shrinkage – contributing to reduced volume growth
Consumers are also showing signs of cutting back on overall volume
Strategies should consider the high snack sales growth rates in developing regions
A renewed focus on “value” is needed to address concerns regarding rising costs
Industry and consumers agree – sustainability and health will highly impact the future
Conclusions/takeaways from the snacks half-year update 2022
Global growth outlook continues to worsen amid rising recession risks
Persistent and broadening inflation significantly reduces consumer spending power
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter
About Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model
About Euromonitor International’s Forecast Model - continued
About Euromonitor International’s Macro Model
Data and reporting timeline: Snacks
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