Tissue and Hygiene: Half-Year Update 2022

September 2022

Euromonitor International updated the Tissue and Hygiene Forecast Model in August 2022, applying the latest macroeconomic consensus to review 2022-2026 category projections. This report reviews top line changes to this outlook, indicating the main challenges faced by the retail Tissue and Hygiene industry, examining the impact of price inflation on category performance, and reviewing the recent reporting on industry leaders from public trading updates.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Cost and price rises proliferate

Tissue and tygiene is subject to a heady combination of supply chain cost increases related to energy and materials which have a specific impact on the industries as well as general economy-wide inflation which is already beginning to have an influence not only on product pricing, some brand availability but also consumers rationalising expenditure, down trading (where possible), trading out and looking for alternatives.

Running on empty

With supply chain disruption especially due to stratospheric energy price increases in Europe, the tissue industry in this region specifically appears already over exposed with what is arguably the most challenging operating environment in the post-World War II era. Production shut downs due to cost implications and the disappearance of budget brands from some store shelves indicate H2 2022 will be one typified by out-of-stocks and if conditions tighten then potentially far more severe than that.

Sustainability inflection point

Such is the cost pressure on supply networks and consumers that there is observable interest growth in new materials and alternative solutions. For sanitary products, the emergence of reusable during the height of the pandemic has been given further impetus as the influence of saving and sustainability combine, tissue and hygiene seemingly meeting its own inflection point as savings dovetail with sustainability objectives for brands and consumers alike.

Heightened social aspects

For developed economies where tissue and hygiene consumption is already engrained, the very real prospect of loss of utility from not being able to access these products for financial reasons is engendering a growing social sustainability debate. The Scottish government, the first to legislate in a bid to end “period poverty” is likely the first of many similar initiatives. Hygiene products now more closely linked (legally speaking) with social equality meaning that many categories will transcend fmcg status with implications for business models and the social contract.

About this briefing
Key findings
Retail hygiene outlook
Largest upgrades/downgrades for retail hygiene
Forecast scenario
Updated H1 forecast - retail hygiene - H1 2022 update vs scenarios
World retail hygiene growth decomposition
The many drivers of inflation within tissue
Input costs significantly up
Converters passing on cost increases
Big brands thoughtful about inflation response
Costs increases hit profitability
Nappies/Diapers and price inflation
Moms Helping Moms
Scotland legislates to end “period poverty”
Reusables to receive a boost
The final word on reusables
Retail tissue outlook
Largest upgrades/downgrades for retail tissue
World retail tissue growth decomposition
Forecast scenarios
Updated H1 forecast - retail tissue - H1 2022 update vs scenarios
The many drivers of inflation within tissue
Input costs significantly up
Political and logistical bottlenecks in pulp
Revenues up, profitability down
Big brands clear on future pricing trends
Paper towels and price inflation
In Kind Direct
In Kind Direct
Pulp friction
Converters switch off and evoke force majeure
Final words on production disruption
Global growth outlook remains challenging, with dominating downside risks
Rising inflation continues to undermine consumer confidence
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter
Tissue and Hygiene data and reporting timeline

Tissue and Hygiene

This is the aggregation of retail and away-from home tissue and disposable hygiene products as well as Rx/reimbursement adult incontinence.

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