Top Five Trends in Home and Garden

June 2026

The home and garden industry reached USD1.3 trillion in 2025, declining 0.4% as macroeconomic headwinds, subdued home transactions and weak consumer confidence weighed on demand. A flat -0.03% CAGR is forecast to 2030, with growth shifting from mature markets to India, Turkey, Malaysia, the UAE and Brazil. Consumer preferences are changing and while growth is minimal at the top level, select subcategories are expected to see growth albeit at a slower pace.

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Key findings

Opportunities are about gardening, segmentation, or exposure

Growth momentum lies within indoor gardening and decorating, especially in emerging markets. E-commerce leads channel growth, but competition is intense. In mature markets, brands seek under-served sub-segments with a “pockets of growth” mission. With B2C demand softening, DIY retailers pivot to B2B/DIFM, attracting tradespeople and creating pro shopping journeys in stores.

Go-to-market needs expanding control, resilience and affordability

Persistent uncertainty since 2020 has driven up value chain costs and strained supplier-retailer dynamics. Control is replacing trust, with vertical integration rising. Brands pursue DTC; retailers expand premium private label. Tariffs and reshoring accelerate diversification, India+2 rises as China+1 falls. Business models reliant on single partners or geographies face greater scrutiny.

Small spaces and elevated experiences drive differentiation

Urbanisation accelerates again, but dissatisfaction with city living is rising - driven by affordability  space constraints and emotional wellbeing. Innovation focuses on flexible, space-saving designs. Proposition strategies now emphasise lifestyle storytelling. Man Wah Holdings thrived by aligning product, timing and messaging; differentiation accelerates in both saturated and growth markets.

Technology investments focus on marketplaces and AI upgrades

E-commerce growth continues globally, led by marketplaces; of note is Shein’s expansion into home categories, with retailers such as Leroy Merlin and Tesco scaling SKUs and seller networks. Marketplace-driven models rise rapidly, reshaping global retail and enabling Asian brands to scale rapidly. Competition intensifies, driving investment in trust programmes, merchandising and AI tools.

Second-hand grows, while good sustainability programmes expand

Second-hand is expanding across categories and regions, driven by cost, conscience and supply pressures. Furniture, homewares and tools have reuse and rental models, with retailers such as IKEA, Kingfisher and Leroy Merlin testing and in cases scaling resale initiatives. Cannibalising stigma fades; second-hand grows no matter what, offering margin, loyalty and sustainability benefits.

Our expert’s view of Home and Garden in 2026
Home and Garden snapshot
Key findings
Key facts to share
Top five trends in Home and Garden
Top five trends uncovered
Home oasis on a budget: Small upgrades drive growth as consumers spend less upfront
Combining calm, value and designer name in Target x Jeremiah Brent collaboration
IKEA PS 2026 blends playfulness, design, functionality with value
Consumers seeking immediate effects on a budget are reshaping assortments
Broader ecosystems become the clearest answer to constant market disruption
IKEA deepened vertical integration to build global resilience amid disruptions
Diversification becomes a competitive shield in a volatile operating environment
Cautious consumers and constant disruption are reshaping home and garden demand
Small-space living drives demand for multifunctional and flexible home solutions
Origami-inspired bathroom solution for small homes but multiple needs
Modular furniture for small-space living driving market growth and competition
Small-space living: Durable growth opportunities for the home and garden industry
AI-driven guidance redefining the home and garden shopping experience
AI-powered solutions that fit mood, style or occasion for enhanced personalisation
Lowe's harnessing AI to guide customer projects, consult and visualise
AI adoption is critical to compete in an increasingly digitally-driven industry
Second-hand retail is becoming organised and a growing competitor to brands
Sabai - bringing sustainability with buy-back and repair initiatives
Vinted moving beyond fashion with “New Eras Again” campaign
Pre-owned market: Growing competition and growth frontiers
Future implications
Opportunities for growth

Home and Garden

This project has a strict focus on sales to consumers only. Trade and professional sales are excluded. Home and garden refers to gardening, home improvement, homewares and home furnishings.

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