World Market for Consumer Foodservice

March 2021

The Coronavirus pandemic has devastated the global foodservice industry in the short term, while radically accelerating existing trends. Surging investment in delivery and online ordering has combined with massive new demand for prepared meals consumed at home. This briefing serves as a guide to the current state of play, running through key regional trends, as well as the five most important global trends for the next five years.

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Key Findings

“Delivery-first” models to surge post-pandemic

The days of delivery as a bolt-on to a restaurant’s existing business are fully gone - the costs associated with third-party delivery and continued declines in eat-in traffic demand more specialised models.

“Kitchen as a service” becoming a reality as ghost kitchens expand

The emergence of powerful, scalable ghost kitchen production networks globally could drive an explosion in virtual brands over the next five years, while bringing a host of non-traditional players into the foodservice space.

Grocery stores, restaurants as “meal fulfilment centres”

Grocery stores and restaurants are both ultimately in the “meal solutions” business, existing on the same continuum of meal occasions throughout the day. Rapidly advancing delivery usage will accelerate this process.

Delivery era means product brands must adapt foodservice strategies

The strategies used to drive high-margin food and drinks sales via the on-trade, particularly limited-service restaurants, will face real pressure in the delivery era, as consumers demand new options.

Foodservice as media: virtual brands, influencers, and food as fashion

Food and cooking-related content will become an ever larger part of the pop culture conversation, with more means of monetising (and branding) these conversations than ever.

Introduction

Scope
Examining five trends shaping Consumer Foodservice
COVID-19 impact on industry

The Industry Pre- and Post-Coronavirus

COVID-19 wreaks unprecedented havoc on global foodservice
Packaged food spending soars ahead of global restaurant sales in 2020
Australasia, US, Asian markets lead global per capita spending
Strong recovery still forecast to 2025
China’s expansion set to accelerate in post-COVID-19 era
Full-service restaurants face long recovery
Consumers in lockdown drive massive spike in delivery spending
Non-traditional locations plot uncertain recovery from dire 2020

Leading Companies and Brands

Fragmentation pulls back as pandemic drives consolidation
Massive share gains for the largest chains
McDonald’s and others see significant sales contraction despite share gains
Chinese companies lead growth as domestic demand recovers

Top Five Trends Shaping the Industry

“Delivery-first” models to surge post-pandemic
“Kitchen as a service” a reality as ghost kitchens, virtual brands expand
Foodservice as media: virtual brands, influencers and food as fashion
Grocery stores, restaurants as “meal fulfilment centres”
Delivery era means product brands must adapt foodservice strategies

Global Outlook

Long road back for global foodservice
A future with more foodservice everywhere, all ordered by phone

Market Snapshots

Global snapshot of Cafés/Bars
Global snapshot of Full-Service Restaurants
Global snapshot of Limited-Service Restaurants
Global snapshot of Self-Service Cafeterias
Global snapshot of Street Stalls/Kiosks
Regional snapshot: Asia Pacific
Regional snapshot: Australasia
Regional snapshot: Eastern Europe
Regional snapshot: Latin America
Regional snapshot: Middle East and Africa
Regional snapshot: North America
Regional snapshot: Western Europe
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