Global Market Overview of Aluminium

August 2022

This report analyses global production, consumption and prices of aluminium. While leading aluminium production giant, China, is struggling with looming energy crisis and disruptions in supply of raw materials, global production of aluminium is set to maintain growth, thanks to expanding Indian, Canadian and Gulf production outputs. Aluminium prices are projected to cool down towards the end of 2022 and stabilise in 2023 as countries find ways to replace Russian aluminium production.

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Key Findings

Aluminium prices are projected to have already peaked in 2022

Aluminium prices are expected to cool down towards the end of 2022, as countries find alternative supply options to replace losses from the Russian market. Moreover, Chinese trade limitations amidst its persisting zero-COVID-19 policy are expected to be lifted, allowing the largest global aluminium producer to utilise its production on the global market.

Construction and automotive demand to slow down as subsidies phased out and inflation rises

The construction sector was among the key drivers of the recovery in aluminium demand, however, the phasing out of subsidies, elevated uncertainties, rising essential commodities prices and projected rise in borrowing costs are anticipated to lead to slower residential construction demand over the forecast period. Likewise, economic uncertainty is likely to cool demand for new vehicles, slowing down the automotive industry’s demand for aluminium products.

Cooling of construction market to be partially compensated by rising machinery demand

Machinery demand grew after COVID-19 as industrial activities picked up. Moreover, automation becomes an important investment as companies deal with labour shortages and aim to mitigate risks of potential shutdown due to virus spread as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, given the looming food crisis due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, agricultural machinery is expected to gain momentum as countries aim to boost productivity and yields.

Sustainability, decarbonisation and circular economy on the agenda

Rising emissions permit costs, increasing pressure from society and governmental regulations push the aluminium industry to seek solutions to reduce its carbon footprint. Sustainability is projected to become an important trend in the industry over the long term. Companies are also expected to invest in recycling of scrap metal waste aiming to lower the negative environmental impact of their production.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings
Key trends impacting aluminium market in 2022

Global supply of aluminium

Oversupply lead to production dip in 2019, yet the industry recovered swiftly
Rising prices driven by COVID-19 recovery have been fuelled by Russian invasion of Ukraine
Global aluminium prices are expected to have already peaked in Q1 2022
Asia continues dominating global aluminium production
After dip in aluminium production in 2019, output returns to modest growth path
China: Looming energy crisis and disrupted raw material supply clouds production outlook
India: Plans to boost aluminium production capacities thanks to rich raw material reserves
Canada: USMCA allows for tariff-free access to the US market, fuelling production output

Global consumption of basic precious and non-ferrous metals

Aluminium consumption steadily grew alongside COVID-19 recovery
China: Cooling down construction demand to be compensated by growing automotive sector
USA: Solid automotive production and infrastructure to support consumption
India: Consumption grows on the back of expanding metal packaging and construction demand
While automotive and machinery industries grow, metal packaging remains key B2B buyer
Metal packaging, wire and other fabricated metal products: Stable demand growth projected
Motor vehicles and parts: Struggling logistics, rising costs and slowing demand
Machinery: Recovering industrial activities and rise of automation drive industry’s demand
Construction: Phaseout of subsidies and elevated inflation to cool down industry’s growth
Aircraft and spacecraft: Industry to see recovery as commercial flights bounce back

Country snapshots

Top 10 country profile : China
Top 10 country profile : India
Top 10 country profile : Canada
Top 10 country profile : Russia
Top 10 country profile : United Arab Emirates
Top 10 country profile : Bahrain
Top 10 country profile : Australia
Top 10 country profile : Norway
Top 10 country profile : Malaysia
Top 10 country profile : Saudi Arabia

Conclusion

Key challenges and opportunities
Economic forecasts
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