Global Trends in Commodities Market

June 2022

This report provides a global overview of commodity market trends from 2016 through to 2026, including price forecasts up to 2023, for the key commodities in the agriculture, energy and metals sectors. The report analyses long-term global trends that can help businesses adapt to changes in the production and supply network, and identify business opportunities.

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Key findings

Production shortfalls and supply disruptions pressure agricultural sector

Production shortfalls, surging input costs for energy and fertilisers and trade disruptions are adding more volatility to the agricultural commodities market. Agricultural commodity prices are set to peak in mid-2022. Nevertheless, adverse weather affecting crop and cereal harvests and rising geopolitical risks will continue to pressure supply.

Fossil fuel prices to stabilise amid rising supply

Recovering post-pandemic demand for energy led to an energy price surge in 2021, which was exacerbated in 2022 by sanctions placed on fossil fuel purchases from Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine. Increasing investment in oil fields and improving supply are, however, forecast to ease the pressure on energy prices. For example, the US is the largest supplier of energy and is forecast to increase oil production, while natural gas production growth will continue to be driven by high export demand, as well as rising domestic consumption.

Metal prices are forecast to peak in 2022

Global metal prices are forecast to stabilise in 2023, as alternative supplies from outside Russia and Ukraine are expected to increase. In addition, the weak economic outlook is forecast to limit business and consumer confidence, in turn slowing down demand and helping to cap price increases. However, the shortages of metals used in electric vehicle production are forecast to worsen, as demand rises.

Supply chain diversification and resilience among the top priorities

Diversification of supply, especially in the metals sector, and building up resilience in commodity supply chains are forecast to be among the core priorities, due to the rising geopolitical risks and climate change. Companies are expected to invest more in alternative logistics channels and digital tools, and to form closer ties with their suppliers to build up resilience.


Key findings
Key trends shaping the future of commodities markets

Agriculture commodities

Inflation, warming climate and rising demand for white meat
India continues to increase its role as global agricultural supplier
Prices inflated by rising input costs and growing supply/demand mismatch

Energy commodities

Fossil fuels continue to dominate, despite slight contraction over 2016-2021
US remains the top global energy supplier
Prices see sharp peak in mid-2022 but are set to fall in the medium term

Metals commodities

Steel and aluminium drive growth in metal supply
China is a key supplier of steel and aluminium
Slower economic growth to help cap the metal prices, but volatility remains high

Key commodity snapshots

Global production overview of wheat
Production shortfalls and trade disruptions
Global production overview of rice
Production shortfalls and trade disruptions
Global production overview of sugar cane
Sugar cane to remain supported by appetites in emerging countries and demand for ethanol
Global production overview of poultry
Poultry set to outperform red meat with future production growth
Global production overview of cotton lint
Cotton lint to benefit from increasing demand for natural fabrics
Global production overview of crude oil and natural gas
Decarbonisation and persistent high prices to shape crude oil market
Global production overview of natural gas
Sanctions against Russian to reshape natural gas supply in Europe
Global production overview of coal, peat and oil shale
Coal demand is set on the rise despite decarbonisation efforts
Global production overview of crude steel
Emerging countries to drive steel production growth
Global production overview of aluminium
Demand for lighter products and green energy boom to lift demand for aluminium
Global production overview of copper
Growing demand and slow output growth may create market imbalances
Global production overview of nickel
Transition to electric vehicles provides strongest stimulus for nickel demand growth
Global production overview of lithium
Long mining project cycles and rising demand to add to the lithium shortages


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