• The US/Israel-Iran war is driving prolonged cost pressures across consumer markets
• Global beauty industry sales to reach USD 590 billion in 2026
• Arabian fragrance brands make up 80% of the total value of the Middle East’s top brands

Despite the challenges facing major consumer markets, the beauty and personal care market remains resilient as the market is expected to grow around 2% in 2026, close to pre-war forecasts, according to market intelligence company Euromonitor International.

The Iran war is creating a prolonged cost shock for global consumer markets, transmitted through soaring energy prices, shipping disruption and infrastructure damage, Euromonitor said.

Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict is not driven by a collapse in demand but by sustained cost inflation that is reshaping industries unevenly. Repercussions from the war are accelerating structural shifts in consumer behaviour; however, the beauty industry remains resilient despite the challenges facing major consumer markets.

According to Euromonitor International’s industry forecast model, even if disruption to the Strait of Hormuz persists until 2028, global beauty and personal care sales are still expected to grow by 1.8% in 2026, reaching USD 590 billion. If the conflict is resolved this year, industry growth is expected to reach 1.9%.

Prior to the outbreak of war, the beauty and personal care market was forecast to grow by 2.5% in value in 2026.

Amna Abbas, senior consultant at Euromonitor International, said: “The beauty and personal care industry has shown notable resilience. During uncertain times, consumers have put greater emphasis on self-care, prioritising hygiene and health products such as bath, shower, perfumes and oral care items."

Resilient beauty market demand driven by fragrance sales

The resilience of the beauty market is largely supported by fragrances. Arabian fragrance brands account for around 80% of combined value among the top brands in the Middle East, totalling USD 1.3 billion in 2025, supported by inventory buffers of four to six months and the continued operation of GCC airlines.

While rising ingredient and packaging costs are emerging, alongside heightened risks from counterfeiting and grey‑market trade as logistics grow more complex, fragrances continue to benefit from their positioning as an affordable self‑care and wellness product, offering psychological comfort during periods of uncertainty.

The conflict initially disrupted the Eid and Ramadan shopping season, shifting demand from tourists to local consumers. However, unlike the COVID‑19 period, retail activity has continued both in‑store and online, helping to mitigate the impact.

“Authentic Arabian fragrances from GCC countries remain well positioned, even as uncertainty persists around the timing of a broader return to stability,” added Abbas.

For more information, check the latest report, Building Market Resilience: Applying Crisis Learnings to the Iran War.