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Country Report

Tobacco in Chile

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Major changes proposed to Chilean legislation

The Chilean government is determined to reduce the country’s smoking prevalence as stated in the 2010-2020 Health Goals, where it established a goal of the reduction of total prevalence from 40.6% to 30.5% by 2020. This is leading to extreme changes in the legal climate regarding smoking and the sale of tobacco products, such as the tax increase implemented in 2010. During 2011, a legislative project was proposed to complement the tax increase and establish a more complete strategy to achieve a decrease in smoking. The main proposals of this new regulation are a total ban on smoking in enclosed public places and an increase in the required distance between retail outlets which sell cigarettes and educational institutions, which will impact the total number of tobacco points-of-sale. It is expected that the new regulation will come into effect over the forecast period but this already raised awareness with the public.

Cigarette retail sales decrease as smoking becomes less affordable

Cigarette volume sales declined as a result of 2010’s tax increases which were reflected in prices during 2010 and 2011, making smoking less affordable. Although this was balanced by illicit trade, this price increase affected mainly young and low income consumers who could not afford to buy economy brands. Trading down to less expensive brands was also seen in 2011, mainly in the mid-priced segment. Some consumers migrated to other alternatives like smoking tobacco which is less expensive and is perceived as healthier than cigarettes.

However, this decrease is expected to be overcome as prices stabilise and manufacturers continue to invest in developing new products with added value features which are attractive to consumers.

High prices favour growth in RYO tobacco

Despite the increase in unit prices, smoking tobacco sales increased in 2011 in response to improving demand. RYO tobacco sales had the highest volume growth among all tobacco products, benefitting from price increases in tobacco products, especially cigarettes. Higher taxes and consequently higher prices drove some consumers, particularly youngsters, to look for less expensive ways of consuming tobacco. Two factors favour growth in RYO tobacco: its lower price as it is affected by fewer taxes, and the fact that it is perceived as less harmful than regular cigarettes. Although this migration caused strong growth in RYO as it comes from a small basis, this did not result in a strong decrease in cigarettes value sales.

Illicit trade benefits from tax increases

Decrease in cigarettes retail volume sales was balanced by an increase in illicit trade sales during 2011. Chile has one of the highest tax charges in the retail selling price in the world, with taxes accounting for more than 80% of the price of a pack of cigarettes. The initial impact of this situation highly benefited illicit trade making it more attractive and causing its strongest growth since 2001. However, this phenomenon is not expected to have a permanent effect as prices stabilise and manufacturers keep investing in new products with value added features.

Tobacco products expected to return to growth in the forecast period

Although not as positive as in previous years, it is expected that tobacco sales will recover its positive growth during the forecast period. As the initial impact of tax increases passes and prices stabilise, leading consumers to get used to new prices, cigarettes volume growth is expected to slowly recover. Manufacturers will invest heavily to avoid losing more consumers, strengthen their strategies of launching innovative and attractive products, and try to maintain price levels. This recovery in cigarettes will drive the market as it represents the majority of tobacco sales in Chile.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Chile with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Chile, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Chile for free:

The Tobacco in Chile market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Chile?
  • What are the major brands in Chile?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Chile?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Chile?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Chile?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Chile in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Chile?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Chile - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Major changes proposed to Chilean legislation

Cigarette retail sales decrease as smoking becomes less affordable

High prices favour growth in RYO tobacco

Illicit trade benefits from tax increases

Tobacco products expected to return to growth in the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a glance

Country-specific legislation:

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Chile - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Chile SA in Tobacco (Chile)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Chile SA: Production Statistics by Factory

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 British American Tobacco Chile SA: Competitive Position 2011

Intercigar Comercial Ltda. in Tobacco (Chile)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Intercigar Comercial Ltda: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris Chile Comercializadora Ltda in Tobacco (Chile)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Philip Morris Chile Comercializadora Ltda: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Chile - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • During 2011 there was a great deal of discussion about a new legislation project that plans to ban smoking in public places. This project was controversial because it contradicted the previous legislation which required having spaces for smokers and non-smokers and because it virtually eliminated the possibility of smoking in all public spaces, among other measures. Thus, there were many discussions about the right to decide whether to smoke or not given the impact that this ban would have on places like restaurants, bars and discotheques and on the justice of the law for businesses that invested to comply with previous legislation. In 2011, legislation was being worked on and if this is completed with no major changes to the initial version it is expected to have significant effects on limiting volume sales growth.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • BAT Chile has a 96% volume share of cigarettes in Chile in 2011 which enables it to have an oligopoly. In this context, Philip Morris was relegated to a minor presence in cigarettes. However, BAT’s decision to leave high tar in 2003 left Philip Morris with more space to grow and become the leader in the segment. However, the outcome of the free competition lawsuit against BAT Chile opens new possibilities for Philip Morris as BAT should refrain from any action that limits free competition and share advertising space at points-of-sale.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • New legislation is expected to put stronger controls on tobacco products, especially on smoking in public places. However, even when this limits cigarettes growth, it will not produce negative results in volume sales. Demand will be triggered by more innovative and value-added products in an attempt by manufacturers to attract new consumers, target unattended segments and prevent consumer migration to economy segments. Also, prices are expected to remain stable as a new tax increase is not expected in the mid-term and manufacturers will try to maintain prices to preserve volume sales.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 12 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular-slims-super slims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Chile - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars consumption remained uncommon in Chile due to the extremely high retail prices of cigars and to a lesser extent cigarillos, making them unaffordable for the majority of Chilean consumers. Although there were various attempts to introduce cigars as products with mass appeal, consumption remained mostly concentrated in upper income segments, with occasional use in the vast majority of the population. Despite this, there was healthy retail volume and value growth in cigars in Chile over the review period as a result of renewed attempts by Corporación Habanos SA to introduce its famous Cuban cigar brands to Chile’s mass consumers.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The two leading players in cigars in Chile in 2011 were Importadora de Tabacos Nady Basti Ltda and Intercigar Comercial Ltda, which together accounted for 59% volume share. Importadora de Tabacos Nady Basti was the leading player with a volume share of 34%, followed by Intercigar Comercial with 25%. Due to the fact that domestic production of cigars is minimal, both companies import all of their products.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • With new regulations regarding smoke-free environments coming into effect over the forecast period, suppliers are expected to strengthen their distribution networks to counterbalance possible impacts on sales. As a result, suppliers will put their efforts in increasing product availability, including more points-of-sale nationwide, to improve product awareness and stimulate sales.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Chile - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco products were new in Chile in 2011, especially when compared to cigarettes and even cigars. Consumers of pipe tobacco in Chile tend to be middle-aged or older males in high income segments, whilst RYO tobacco is a product mostly in demand among younger consumers. Although aimed at different consumer types, both kinds of products share the attractiveness of being perceived as less harmful than regular cigarettes.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Sociedad Comercial Petra Ltda remained the leader in smoking tobacco in Chile, gaining three percentage points to account for 34% volume share in 2011. However, the fast growth experienced by this company may be in jeopardy as it depends on the steady growth of pipe tobacco products and the trend towards smoking flavoured tobacco from the Middle East. In second place is Importadora de Tabacos Nady Basti with 24% volume share and slowly recovering share points lost by the entrance of Sociedad Comercial Petra Ltda. This company has a wider product portfolio, participating in RYO tobacco where it is the leader and in pipe tobacco where it is in second place. Importadora de Tabacos Nady Basti distributes a wide range of pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco brands, including Amphora, Borkum Riff, Half & Half and Drum.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco will continue to perform well over the forecast period. Rising demand for smoking tobacco products, especially RYO, as a result of tax increases and consumers’ positive perception about these products as being less harmful than cigarettes, will be the biggest driver of growth. Also, the fact that government campaigns and regulations are directly focused on cigarettes and not on smoking tobacco will allow growth.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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