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Country Report

Tobacco in Uruguay

Aug 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Uruguay with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Uruguay, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Uruguay for free:

The Tobacco in Uruguay market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Uruguay?
  • What are the major brands in Uruguay?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Uruguay?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Uruguay?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Uruguay?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Uruguay in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Uruguay?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Price increases fuel growth in value sales

For the second consecutive year, the augmented tax pressure exerted by the government on tobacco products resulted in significant unit price increases in most tobacco categories and produced an overall double-digit rise in value sales, despite volumes that keep declining. The tobacco industry reflected the tax increases in end prices and failed to force retailers to reduce their margins. Consumers, with their purchasing power increasing year after year, for the most part continued purchasing the brands of their preference regardless of the new prices, with the decline in volumes far outweighed by higher prices.

The year BAT left the country

Tired of unsuccessfully appealing against the restrictive legislation, with diminishing volume share that pricing strategies could not reverse, as well as denouncing the impact that the illicit trade has had on its business, British American Tobacco Uruguay finally withdrew from the Uruguayan market in mid-2010. Some of the brands from this company later reappeared in the fourth quarter, commercialised in the Punta del Este resort area by one of BAT’s former distributors, marking a token presence with quasi-negligible sales.

Monte Paz increases its share

Domestic manufacturer Cía Industrial de Tabacos Monte Paz SA, known simply as Monte Paz, continued to dominate tobacco sales, either directly as it does in the cigarettes categories or through its subsidiary La Republicana SA in cigars and smoking tobacco. Keeping a low profile by avoiding appealing against government bans and restrictions, the company was able to increase its volume share across a range of categories, most notably in cigarettes where some of its smaller brands California, Ocean, and Fiesta actually increased volumes and its largest brand Nevada increased share as it suffered less volume loss than competitors’ brands.

Retailers make a stand

Following the March 2010 tax increase, manufacturers increased their prices and suggested sales prices, which meant a significant reduction in retailers’ margins. The two associations that represent kiosks and independent small grocers, AKISAQU and CAMBADU, firmly opposed the suggested prices and finally obtained an agreement from the industry to keep the price structure unchanged. Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks that had made important investments in 2009 to adapt their premises to the new regulations by putting all tobacco products either behind the counter or in locked shelves were correct to fight for their margins, assuming the new prices would not have a significant impact on volumes and they continued accounting for the highest volume sales of tobacco.

Market decline set to ease

After several years of restrictive measures and bans the smoking prevalence rate declines have already begun to slow down as the majority of those who still smoke are hardcore smokers unaffected by health warnings and awareness campaigns. Declining volume growth rates are expected to lose speed during the forecast period, producing only a minor diminution in cigarettes sales and growth in cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Uruguay - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Price increases fuel growth in value sales

The year BAT left the country

Monte Paz increases its share

Retailers make a stand

Market decline set to ease

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty levies 2005 - 2010
  • Table 5 Taxation and Duty levies 2005 - 2010
  • Table 6 Taxation and Duty levies 2005 - 2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Summary 2 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 3 Research Sources

Tobacco in Uruguay - Company Profiles

Abal Hnos SA in Tobacco (Uruguay)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Abal Hnos SA: Competitive Position 2010

Cía Industrial de Tabacos Monte Paz SA in Tobacco (Uruguay)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Cía Industrial de Tabacos Monte Paz SA: Competitive Position 2009

Xinet SA in Tobacco (Uruguay)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Xinet SA: Competitive Position 2009

Cigarettes in Uruguay - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Although during 2010 there was abundant press coverage of the appeal submitted by Philip Morris International Inc to the ICSID, claiming that law No 18256 and its regulatory decrees infringe the company’s investments rights, the most important event has been British American Tobacco withdrawing its direct participation in the Uruguayan market. After unsuccessfully attempting to reverse the government’s measures with different appeals, as well as absorbing tax increases and keeping prices unchanged but still failing to increase volume sales, the company withdrew in the middle of the year. BAT’s brands maintain a symbolic presence as Luricar SA, a former distributor of BAT’s products, began importing some of the brands and selling them in the Punta del Este resort area.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • With an 84% volume share in 2010, domestic operator Cía Industrial de Tabacos Monte Paz SA remains the undisputed leader in cigarettes sales in Uruguay. Under the existing market conditions, with no possibility of advertising products, companies were forced to shrink their respective portfolios and rely on their traditional brands to support volume sales. In this respect Monte Paz, with its Nevada and Coronado brands that have been the traditional historic best-sellers, maintains a clear advantage over its competitors.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 10 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The outcome of Philip Morris International’s appeal in front of the ICSID, which is in its preparatory stages, will have an impact on the future of tobacco products sales in Uruguay. The company claims that the Uruguayan anti-tobacco law and the regulatory decrees are contrary to the agreement signed in 1988 between Switzerland (where PMI is based) and Uruguay for the development and protection of investments. This case should be resolved during the early part of the forecast period and whatever the final resolution, it will represent a key turning point in the government’s battle against the tobacco industry and its efforts to reduce smoking in the Uruguayan population.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 11 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Uruguay - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Uruguay does not have a tradition of cigars and cigarillos smoking and with the exception of some high-income consumers who do smoke cigars regularly, the vast majority of cigars and cigarillos consumers are occasional smokers. The high price of handmade Cuban cigars has served as a barrier to the spread of cigar smoking, an impediment which was made even more significant by tax increases.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • La Republicana SA, a daughter company of Cía Industrial de Tabacos Monte Paz SA, remains the undisputed leader of cigars and cigarillos sales in Uruguay, reaching an 80% volume share in 2010. This company imports and distributes best-selling brands such as Swisher Sweets, Henri Wintermans Blackstone and King Edward. Domestic operator Puros Don Juan Capurro has slowly climbed to a distant second position with a 15% share in 2010, displacing Cuban brands importer Xinet SA to third place with only 2% of volume sales.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The trading down trend seen in the last part of the review period, fuelled by the tax reform of 2007 is expected to remain strong in the forecast period as many cigar smokers find a balance between quality and price that best fits their taste and purchasing power.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Uruguay - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Powdered tobacco, known as rapé, and chewable tobacco (naco) are no longer found in branded format in Uruguay and can only be obtained in the northern part of the country where there are still some small tobacco plantations.

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • It is not expected that smokeless tobacco will appear in regular distribution channels during the forecast period. Furthermore, the category is unlikely to post important volume growth through existing channels during this time.

Smoking Tobacco in Uruguay - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe smoking is not a widespread tradition in Uruguay and it has not been affected by the anti-tobacco legislation, as pipes are usually smoked at home where the bans have no effect. There has been a stable consumer base of RYO tobacco in rural areas among ranch and farm workers, which has not shown a significant variation after the implementation of the anti-tobacco regulations. The total number of RYO smokers increased after the 2002 economic crisis when many cigarette smokers had to trade down to this less expensive option. This has been supported by low-income consumers and those who are new to smoking opting for RYO tobacco as prices of cigarettes become prohibitive for significant numbers of consumers.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cía Industrial de Tabacos Monte Paz SA is the undisputed leader in RYO tobacco volume sales, with a 74% share. This was achieved through its leading brand Especial Tabaco de Cerrito, simply known as Cerrito. The company’s total share would climb up to more than 93% with the addition of its other brands Peruano Rubio, Toro, and its two oriental blends Puerto Rico and Río Novo with shares that could not be clearly determined but that industry sources place as high as a combined 20%.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • The tax increase of 2010 on RYO tobacco, which produced an important hike in end prices, is expected to be repeated during the forecast period, fuelling important value sales growth at the expense of minimal volume improvement. These foreseen increases will be accompanied by hikes in cigarettes unit prices, although the latter is likely to be of a smaller magnitude. This will in turn reduce the price gap between cigarettes and RYO. More importantly, the unit price of RYO tobacco per equivalent cigarette will become closer to those of illicit trade, which could support a trade-up of many consumers of RYO tobacco, to illicit cigarettes, a trend that has already been witnessed in 2010.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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