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Global Market Overview of Rice

October 2022

The report provides a global overview of production, consumption and prices of rice. After a relatively stable 2021, the rice market is registering uncertainty in 2022. China and India remained the key producers of the commodity, however, extreme weather in 2022 as well as export restrictions in India are causing turbulence and shifts in global markets. Meanwhile, demand is growing for affordable food staples such as rice, especially among more vulnerable consumer groups.

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Key findings

Demand for rice to continue growing over the short term

Rice, a staple food in the majority of Asia, is set on a growth path, as the calorie-dense food is a cheaper substitute for currently highly inflation-impacted food staples. Furthermore, rice’s use as animal feed is also set to stimulate the commodity’s demand in 2022 - especially in light of growing price inflation of more traditional feeds in 2022.

Shifts in trade as Asian giants seek food security

India sustained its leadership position as the largest rice exporter in the world in 2021, however, increasing risks around the country’s food security are pushing the government to limit foreign trade in the commodity in 2022. Meanwhile, other major exporters, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have potential to increase their foreign trade, expanding their role in the rice export market.

Climate change and extreme weather events to increase their influence on rice farming

The increasingly adverse weather is threatening rice farming in the largest producing region, Asia Pacific. For example, in 2022, heatwaves in China, floods in Pakistan and heavy winds and heavy rain in Bangladesh all have had a significantly damaging effect on 2022-2023 harvest prospects. As extreme weather events are increasing in their severity and frequency, rice production output is heavily reliant on farmers’ ability to adapt.

Turbulent rice prices

Rice prices peaked in 2021, however various global events, such as declining production levels during the current season and export restrictions coming from India, the largest global exporter, have the potential to sustain elevated prices for the commodity over the short-term outlook.

Scope
Key findings
Key trends impacting the rice commodity market in 2022
Global rice production growth depends on improving yields in Asia Pacific
Rice prices expected to ease up over the outlook
Quarterly price analysis table
India continues to dominate rice exports
India records steepest rice output growth over 2016-2021
Growing yields secure stable output of rice despite shrinking harvest area in China
A nticipated decrease in 2022 harvest leads to export restrictions
Adverse weather conditions are set to limit rice output growth in Bangladesh in 2022
Growing population in China remains the largest global rice consumer
Rice consumption growth in China to slow down with growing population’s affluence
India to remain heavily reliant on rice for food security
Rice consumption in the US dependent on expanding cultural minorities’ share of population
Grain mill production to sustain steady growth
Ready meals to remain the key B2B buyer of rice
Asia Pacific to lead demand growth for rice flour
Rice consumption in animal feed to soften with stabilising wheat market
China to lead the demand for rice in beer brewing
Top 10 country profile: China
Top 10 country profile : India
Top 10 country profile : Bangladesh
Top 10 country profile : Indonesia
Top 10 country profile : Vietnam
Top 10 country profile : Thailand
Top 10 country profile : Myanmar
Top 10 country profile : Philippines
Top 10 country profile : Brazil
Top 10 country profile : Cambodia
Key challenges and opportunities
Economic forecasts
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