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Country Report

Tobacco in Bulgaria

Nov 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Bulgaria with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Bulgaria, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Bulgaria for free:

The Tobacco in Bulgaria market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Bulgaria?
  • What are the major brands in Bulgaria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Bulgaria?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Bulgaria?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Bulgaria?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Bulgaria in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Bulgaria?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco market stabilises after a heavy volume decline in 2009

Bulgaria’s Tobacco market posted positive current value growth in 2010. The main reason for the increase was taxation. Bulgaria witnessed yet another excise tax increase, which was passed by the National Assembly and took effect in March 2010. As a result of steep price increases over the last five years, illicit trade in the country flourished. However, in 2010, the increased efforts of the Bulgarian government and cigarette producers to combat illegal trade managed to maintain legal volume sales of cigarettes from the previous year.

Bulgartabac still awaiting privatisation

Without a doubt, the most important event at the start of the forecast period will be the privatisation of Bulgartabac Holding Group. If the former monopoly is privatised, this will have a profound impact not only on the Tobacco market but also on the Bulgarian economy. It is expected the monopoly will be privatised in a ‘package’. The privatisation will bring much-needed resources to the state budget but the restructuring will pose questions about releasing staff and the disposal of assets. An important issue hindering the privatisation process is the fact that the Bulgarian government is trying to ensure that the future owner of the company will buy a quota of the production of local growers of raw Tobacco.

Bulgartabac continues to lose share

Fierce competition in the Bulgarian market led to a drop in Bulgartabac’s share to 38% in 2010. For many years it held a monopolistic position until the opening up of the Bulgarian economy to the EU. The decline in Bulgartabac’s share is a logical outcome of a consumer shift towards the products of British American Tobacco, Philip Morris, Karelia Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco. Moreover, parts of the former monopoly were privatised, and the new owners Slance Stara Zagora and King’s Tobacco AD have managed to gain a large share of the company’s sales. In response to the increased level of domestic competition, the company attempted successfully to increase its exports and widen its number of export markets, adding countries such as Croatia to its portfolio.

Introduction of a full smoking ban fails

A complete smoking ban, which was planned for June 2010, was not implemented and the new regulations are not expected to have a seriously negative effect on smoking levels over the forecast period. According to European Union directives, Bulgaria should implement a full smoking ban by 2014, but as this directive should also be part of national legislation, it can be expected that the first effects of a full smoking ban will not be felt in the Bulgarian market any earlier than 2015.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Bulgaria - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco market stabilises after a heavy volume decline in 2009

Bulgartabac still awaiting privatisation

Bulgartabac continues to lose share

Introduction of a full smoking ban fails

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Legislation: EU Directives:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics –Tobacco Leaf
  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Bulgaria - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Bulgaria EOOD in Tobacco (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 British American Tobacco Bulgaria EOOD: Competitive Position 2010

Bulgartabac Holding Group in Tobacco (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Bulgartabac Holding Group: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Bulgartabac Holding Group: Competitive Position 2010

Imperial Tobacco Bulgaria EOOD in Tobacco (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION BY FACTORY

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Imperial Tobacco Bulgaria EOOD: Competitive Position 2010

King's Tobacco AD in Tobacco (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Philip Morris Bulgaria EOOD in Tobacco (Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 16 Philip Morris Bulgaria EOOD: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Bulgaria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Taxation on cigarettes in Bulgaria was increased dramatically at the beginning of 2010 following an agreement between the Bulgarian government and the EU to reach minimum excise levels. In fact, the Bulgarian government increased excise tax above the level negotiated with the EU for 2010. In transposing EU Tobacco taxation directives, the Bulgarian Law on Excise and Tax Storehouses (with follow-up ordinances) was amended. Excise was increased from 1 January 2010, with a transition period of three months, during which cigarettes with old excise stamps could be sold. Thus, with effect from April 2010, the ad valorem component of cigarette taxation was reduced from 40.5% to 36%, but at the same time specific tax was increased from BGN41 to BGN74 per 1,000 sticks, effectively increasing unit price per stick by some 6%.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Tobacco industry in Bulgaria was long dominated by the state-owned monopoly Bulgartabac Holding. However, in 2007, Bulgaria joining the EU and the subsequent liberalisation of the market, together with the removal of state-regulated unit prices, led to the rapid expansion of multinational importers and a decline in Bulgartabac’s share. In addition, the company’s share declined further as, after numerous attempts, parts of the company were privatised in 2008. The Tobacco factories in Stara Zagora and Plovdiv were sold to private companies and now operate as independent local producers, marketing their own brands. The Bulgarian government has announced its intention to fully privatise the rest of the company in 2011, but its sale conditions have proved unacceptable to many potential purchasers and so its privatisation remains in doubt. The government has demanded as a condition of sale that the future owner must purchase a set quota of its Tobacco from local Tobacco producers. This is deterring multinational manufacturers which generally purchase their Tobacco from a variety of countries.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period cigarettes is expected to post CAGRs of 1% in both constant value and volume terms. The halt in excise tax hikes and ongoing competition between the main players will contribute to slow volume growth. In addition, the lowering of illicit trade and the increased efforts of the Bulgarian government to tighten border control, related to the efforts of Bulgaria to join the Schengen area, will contribute to the volume growth of cigarettes for the first time since 2003.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 17 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slim/superslim vs regular

  • Table 17 Slim/superslim Penetration

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 33 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 47 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Bulgaria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Generally smokers in Bulgaria prefer cigarettes. However, in 2010 small cigars and cigarillos were sold in supermarkets and many other Tobacco outlets, unlike in previous years. Smokers seemed to be more aware of their presence than ever before. Nevertheless, cigars still remain luxury items. The nouveau riche or certain business groups, the main consumers of cigars, have started to form members clubs and organise events and meetings to popularise cigars and the cigar making process. Currently, hotels such as the Hilton, Radisson and Sheraton have small outlets offering expensive cigar brands. Perhaps in the long term, Bulgaria may develop a tradition for cigars.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The cigars and cigarillos category in Bulgaria remains rather fragmented. In 2010, it was led by Altadis SA with a 49% volume share, followed by Davidoff & Cie with an 18% share. Altadis’s Romeo y Julieta held the highest brand share of 20%.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • In 2010, the category showed signs of further potential. Over the forecast period it is anticipated to register a volume CAGR of 5% and a constant value CAGR of 3%. Small cigars is expected to be the strongest performer. Cigarillos and large cigars are also expected to contribute to overall volume growth as their tradition evolves. However, the share of both cigars and cigarillos of total Tobacco sales is not expected to increase considerably over the next five years as these products remain expensive for the average Bulgarian smoker.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 56 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 57 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 58 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in Bulgaria - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In contrast to cigarettes or even cigars, there is no tradition for smoking Tobacco in Bulgaria. While RYO Tobacco develops in countries with high excise tax on cigarettes and pipe Tobacco smoking is often based on tradition, in Bulgaria the situation is quite different. Despite several tax increases which pushed prices of cigarettes upwards, cigarette smoking is still cheaper than RYO Tobacco. Purchasers of RYO Tobacco tend to come from the same consumer group as cigarettes, although they are driven by different motivation. Smoking RYO cigarettes is a different experience – some consumers appreciate the different taste of RYO Tobacco and like the idea of preparing their own cigarettes. Also, hand rolling is seen as a good way to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked in a day. Pipe Tobacco is smoked by a small but loyal group of consumers (the category accounted for 22% of smoking Tobacco volume sales in 2010). On some occasions, pipe Tobacco brands are chosen instead of RYO Tobacco because of the mellow and aromatic taste.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Smoking Tobacco is a rather fragmented category but was led by Pöschl Tabak GmbH & Co KG in 2010 with a volume share of 36% as a result of TTI Bulgaria’s good distribution. The second-and third-ranked companies in 2010 were Von Eicken GmbH and HTH Tabak BV. The remaining companies held individual shares of around 4% or below. The distributor Kaliman Caribe OOD has preferred to concentrate on gaining distribution for the cigar brands it represents (mainly offered by Altadis SA) rather than establish a leading position in the limited smoking Tobacco category.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • The smoking Tobacco category is expected to see moderate development over the forecast period. It will continue to grow thanks to increased penetration of the supermarket/hypermarket channel and the expected increasing importance of the Tobacco specialist channel. Smoking Tobacco is anticipated a volume CAGR of 2%. Over the forecast period RYO Tobacco’s contribution to overall Tobacco sales will remain small, although it is likely to benefit from the increasingly negative image of cigarettes and the growing identity of RYO Tobacco as a more ‘special’ Tobacco to smoke.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 67 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 69 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 70 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 71 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 75 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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