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Country Report

Tobacco in Brazil

Aug 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Brazil with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Brazil, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Brazil for free:

The Tobacco in Brazil market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Brazil?
  • What are the major brands in Brazil?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Brazil?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Brazil?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Brazil?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Brazil in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Brazil?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FCTC conference in 2010 threatens the tobacco supply chain

The commitments signed by Brazilian representatives in the fourth session of the Conference of Parties (COP4) of the WHO/FCTC in the middle of November 2010 threatened the Brazilian tobacco supply chain, as ANVISA presented two important proposals for public consultation. The first, presented at the end of November, proposes to eliminate flavoured cigarettes, as such products attract new smokers, mainly young people and women. The second, presented at the end of December, proposes the regulation of cigarette display at retail points-of-sale, except in specialist stores.

Illegal cigarettes increase in the Brazilian market

New key drivers of illegal sales were listed by the main manufacturers of cigarettes as: the continued US dollar depreciation in relation to local currency in 2010, which generated a competitive edge to the cigarettes made in Paraguay; the entry of smuggled cigarettes from Paraguay through the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul; the return to the market, through judicial action and through adhesion to the Fiscal Recovery Plan (Refis) of companies which had been shut down because they had no manufacturer registry. For these reasons, it is expected that sales of illegal cigarettes will increase over the forecast period 2010-2015.

Souza Cruz invests in the extension of its product portfolio

The leading company launched several brand extensions in 2010. The premium cigarette brand Carlton by Dunhill became Dunhill Carlton in 2010, and gained two new versions: Dunhill Nanocut Blonde Blend and Dunhill My Mixture. Free Nano, Lucky Strike Click & Roll and Derby Amarelinho, in addition to the new design of packaging for the Hollywood brand, completed the launches by the company in this year. Such products helped the company to increase its volume share in 2010.

Philip Morris acquires 17,000 tobacco growers’ contracts to supply its needs

Philip Morris Brasil acquired contracts from Universal Leaf Tabacos Ltda and Alliance One Brasil Exportadora de Tabacos Ltda with the purpose of supplying its local needs for the production of cigarettes, and exporting to other Philip Morris International Inc subsidiaries. The purpose is to reduce the cost of local production and allow the company to compete better against the leader, Souza Cruz.

New rules implemented by ANVISA affect national manufacturers of cigars and cigarettes

From 2010, ANVISA implemented new rules for the registration of cigars and cigarillos. In the past, cigars and cigarillos were registered by brand, and the agency chose some gauge samples from the manufacturers for approval. The new criterion to approve and register products is by gauge instead of by brand, which means more costs for producers. Another change implemented by ANVISA was the number of substances to be analysed, which jumped from 4 to 28. As this analysis is carried out abroad, it leads to high costs for manufacturers. As a consequence, some local small manufacturers of cigars and cigarillos closed their doors in 2010.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Brazil - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FCTC conference in 2010 threatens the tobacco supply chain

Illegal cigarettes increase in the Brazilian market

Souza Cruz invests in the extension of its product portfolio

Philip Morris acquires 17,000 tobacco growers’ contracts to supply its needs

New rules implemented by ANVISA affect national manufacturers of cigars and cigarettes

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2006-2010
  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Brazil - Company Profiles

Menendez Amerino & Cia Ltda in Tobacco (Brazil)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 Menendez Amerino & Cia Ltda: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Menendez Amerino & Cia Ltda: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Brasil Indústria e Comércio Ltda in Tobacco (Brazil)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Philip Morris Brasil Indústria e Comércio Ltda: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Philip Morris Brasil Indústria e Comércio Ltda: Competitive Position 2010

Souza Cruz SA in Tobacco (Brazil)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 12 Souza Cruz SA: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Souza Cruz SA: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Brazil - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • After the “fourth session of the Conference of Parties” (COP4) of the WHO/FCTC, which took place in Punta del Este, Uruguay, during 15-20 November 2010, ANVISA presented two proposals for public consultation. The first proposal, 112/2010, is related to prohibiting the use of ingredients normally added to products made from burley tobacco. During the drying process of burley tobacco, in sheds or in the open, this variety sheds 25% of its sugar content, and, to recompose the sugar levels, it requires the addition of industrialised processed sugar to enhance and flavour the cigarettes. ANVISA’s worry is concerned with the target group reached by flavoured cigarettes, formed mainly by new smokers, including young people and women.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Souza Cruz and Philip Morris held a 98% share of volume sales of legal cigarettes in 2010. The leader, Souza Cruz, was responsible for an 87% share (two percentage points more), whilst Philip Morris maintained its volume share (just 0.2 of a percentage point less than in the previous year).

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarettes is expected to see a negative CAGR of 1% in volume terms in the forecast period 2010-2015, to reach 81.2 billion sticks in the legal market in 2015. It is also expected that sales of illicit cigarettes will remain flat in volume terms, at 31 billion sticks during the forecast period, considering the actions of manufacturers and the government. Manufacturers will always develop a new segment of smokers, as they did with young people and females through flavoured cigarettes. The government will implement actions to avoid the growth of new smokers in such groups on the one hand, and keep an eye on and implement important actions to control illegal trade on the other hand. As a result, per capita consumption should decrease considerably over the forecast period 2010-2015.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 15 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filtered/unfiltered

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Brazil - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars continue to be a symbol of status in Brazil. Smokers are mainly high-income males, but female smokers are also becoming representative in the country. Both genders from the high-income group also consume cigarillos, although they have higher prices when compared with premium and super-premium cigarettes.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • A Brazilian company established in the state of Bahia, Menendez Amerino & Cia, led cigars excluding cigarillos with a share of 42% in volume terms in 2010, thanks to its two popular brands, Alonso Menendez and Doña Flor.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Sales of cigars and cigarillos are expected to grow throughout the forecast period 2010-2015, by a CAGR of 3% in volume terms, driven by cigarillos, which is expected to increase by CAGR of 3% in volume terms. In constant value terms, the category is forecast to increase by CAGR of 8%, as a result of growing sales of large and premium cigars.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in Brazil - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The habit of smoking pipe tobacco is limited to older middle- and high-income males. As a consequence of the limited number of consumers, as well as the higher taxes implemented by the Brazilian government in 2009 in this category, volume sales continued to decrease in 2010, and reduced volume consumption is also expected over the forecast period 2010-2015. Despite this, pipe tobacco continued to be the largest category in volume terms within smoking tobacco.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2010, Souza Cruz continued to lead RYO tobacco with a 71% volume share with its Trevo brand. Its leadership is mainly due to the vast distribution network used by the cigarette manufacturer, and its competitive prices. Cigar manufacturers such as Menendez Amerino & Cia and Cibahia Tabacos Especiais are slowly gaining share with their respective Royal Choice and Parati brands.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to see a negative CAGR of 2% in volume terms during the forecast period 2010-2015. This will be due to the reduction of the consumer base and low interest amongst young smokers, besides anti-tobacco legislation such as the 2009 prohibition on smoking in all enclosed public environments, approved by many Brazilian states. Also, probable future increases in taxes (expected in 2012 and in 2015), resulting in higher unit prices, would also have a negative impact on sales, as well as on demand.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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