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Country Report

Tobacco in China

Nov 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Growing demand drives a stable increase in volume sales

The overall tobacco market in China registered steady growth in volume sales in 2011, even though this was at a slightly slower pace than in previous years. Steadily increasing demand was the main driving force for the sustainable growth. Despite price increases caused by tax adjustments, as well as public smoking bans implemented by the government, there was little impact on the growth of tobacco in China.

Product premiumisation is the major strategic focus

Along with the overall improvement of Chinese consumers’ disposable incomes, the pursuit of high-quality lifestyles and high-end products witnessed intense growth in 2011. Meanwhile, the adjustment of ad valorem excise tax in 2009 heavily squeezed the profits of economy tobacco brands; hence mid-priced and premium brands were considered as the main strategic focus of companies. As a result, supported by the government and the STMA (State Tobacco Monopoly Association), more endeavours were made in terms of mid-priced and premium brands by tobacco manufacturers than on economy brands.

Reducing the tar level becomes a must for players’ sustainable growth

A reduction in the tar content was highlighted as the major trend in tobacco in China in the review period. Following the tar level target announced by the STMA in early 2010, in May 2012 the government regulated that it would be illegal to sell cigarettes with a tar content higher than 11mg per stick in China from the beginning of 2013. In response to such consecutive tar content restrictions, most tobacco manufacturers made heavy investment in research and development into low tar brands, which brought about dozens of new launches with a lower tar content over the review period. By the end of the review period, considerable progress had been achieved in terms of reducing the tar level in cigarettes. According to the STMA, the average tar level was 13.6mg, 12.2mg and 11.9mg in 2004, 2009 and 2010 respectively. However, in 2011 it reduced to 11.5mg. Furthermore, given the tar level targets set by the STMA, further progress is expected to be seen over the forecast period.

Market centralisation is further enhanced

During the review period, the restructuring and integration of China’s tobacco industry steadily continued. Supported and supervised by the government and the STMA, leading tobacco companies in China made persistent efforts in terms of product quality control and research and development, with the aim of strengthening brand image and improving market penetration. As awareness of the leading brands amongst domestic smokers has gradually been enhanced, consolidation in tobacco was reinforced in 2011.

Steady volume increase is expected over the forecast period

Tobacco in China is expected to record a steady volume increase during the next five years. Although several smoking control regulations have been implemented by the government, such as public smoking bans, they are not forecast to have much impact on the volume consumption of tobacco. Meanwhile, the price rises brought about by ad valorem excise tax adjustments are not expected to affect domestic smokers’ consumption of tobacco products.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in China with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in China, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in China for free:

The Tobacco in China market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in China?
  • What are the major brands in China?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in China?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in China?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in China?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in China in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in China?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in China - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Growing demand drives a stable increase in volume sales

Product premiumisation is the major strategic focus

Reducing the tar level becomes a must for players’ sustainable growth

Market centralisation is further enhanced

Steady volume increase is expected over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Chinese legislation

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

Local and special terms

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in China - Company Profiles

China Tobacco Hunan Industry Corp in Tobacco (China)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 China Tobacco Hunan Industry Corp: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 China Tobacco Hunan Industry Corp: Competitive Position 2011

Hongyun Honghe Group in Tobacco (China)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 9 Hongyun Honghe Group: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 Hongyun Honghe Group: Competitive Position 2011

Shanghai Tobacco Group in Tobacco (China)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 13 Shanghai Tobacco Group: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 14 Shanghai Tobacco Group: Competitive Position 2011

Yuxi Hongta Tobacco Group Co Ltd in Tobacco (China)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 17 Yuxi Hongta Tobacco Group Co Ltd: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 18 Yuxi Hongta Tobacco Group Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in China - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • A reduction in tar content was highlighted as the major trend in cigarettes in China over the review period. As announced by the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) in early 2010, cigarettes with a tar content of more than 12mg per stick are not allowed to be produced from 2011 onwards; meanwhile, the tar content should be reduced to 10mg per stick from 2015 onwards. Following this circular, in May 2012, the government announced that it would be illegal to sell cigarettes with a tar content higher than 11mg per stick in China from the beginning of 2013. As a result, the consecutive tar content restriction circulars by the government significantly impacted cigarettes in China; meanwhile, further propelling the restructuring of different tar levels of cigarettes. In response to the STMA, as mid tar and low tar cigarettes have been regarded as the major growth area for cigarettes, most manufacturers have been making heavy investment in cultivating new cigarette products with a lower tar content, not only to enrich their brand portfolios, but also to meet the demands of health-conscious consumers and to gain further share.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The tobacco industry in China is uniformly regulated by the STMA, which takes charge of implementing tobacco-related standards, targets and circulars; meanwhile, supervising the implementation of such regulations. Furthermore, in order to protect domestic tobacco players, the STMA conducts strict controls on the imported volumes of cigarettes. Benefiting from centralised supervision and management by the STMA, China’s tobacco industry has been experiencing healthy and concentrated development, in such a well-regulated and standardised market environment.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 19 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The growth rate of cigarettes in China is expected to gradually slow down over the forecast period in volume terms, with a CAGR of less than 4%, compared with a volume CAGR of more than 4% over the review period. Even so, volume growth in China is predicted to continue to outperform volume growth in the global tobacco market.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 20 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Cigarettes: filtered/unfiltered

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in China - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Along with the accelerated globalisation process and national economic development, Western lifestyles and exotic cultures have been further penetrating into Chinese consumers’ lives. Although cigar smoking was considered as a luxury practice in China in previous years, it has been becoming more approachable and popular amongst domestic consumers, especially for businessmen, or people with relatively high social status and income. Consequently, the demand for cigars witnessed rapid growth over the review period, especially in international metropolises in China, such as Shanghai and Beijing.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • China Tobacco Chuanyu Industry Corp maintained its leading position in cigars in China in 2011, with a volume share of 50%. Greatwall, the flagship brand of the company, enjoys a well-established brand image and a long-standing presence in cigars. Thanks to the persistent efforts by the company in terms of product quality control and enhancement, the newly launched cigar series in mid-2010, called Greatwall Legend, has been well-received not only by local smokers, but also the global cigars market. As the only Asian cigar manufacturer, China Tobacco Chuanyu Industry Corp was invited to attend an exhibition of worldwide top-quality cigars held in Las Vegas in July 2011. The hand-made Greatwall Legend series was spoken of highly, and was warmly praised by international premium cigar manufacturers during the exhibition, through which the high-end and high-quality brand image of Greatwall cigars was further proved and consolidated.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 21 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, cigars is predicted to register steady development, with a volume CAGR of 14%. Although having experienced more than 10 years’ development, there is still a long way for cigars in China to go before reaching maturity. Consequently, supported by the government and the STMA, further exploration and sustainable development of cigars are highly expected to be realised in the coming years.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in China - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco basically remained unavailable in China at the end of the review period, although it is regarded as a popular tobacco product in Western countries. Attributed to low market awareness, few tobacco companies in China have shown an interest in smokeless tobacco. Furthermore, the dynamic development of cigarettes, enjoying both affordable prices and easy accessibility, has left no room for the development of smokeless tobacco.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There were no local manufacturers producing smokeless tobacco in China over the review period.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period smokeless tobacco in China is expected to remain negligible and fragmented in both volume and value terms. Given the obvious competitive advantages of cigarettes in terms of easy availability, reasonable selling price and long-standing presence, the growing popularity of and consumer base for cigarettes will remain the main obstacle to the development of smokeless tobacco, a trend which is unlikely to change in the near future.

Smoking Tobacco in China - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco in China enjoyed a limited presence in certain regions across the country over the review period. Most of the smoking tobacco available in the domestic market is of unpackaged format. Influenced by traditional pipe smoking, some farmers living in rural areas are used to choosing RYO tobacco due to its relatively low selling price. Nevertheless, in terms of smokers in the cities with low incomes, they are more likely to purchase economy cigarettes with affordable prices instead of RYO tobacco, owing to the convenience of carrying and storing cigarettes.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Over the review period, smoking tobacco in China remained highly fragmented, with no leading players. Most of the smoking tobacco available in the domestic market is manufactured by small local companies, sold loose and unpackaged. However, none of the key players in tobacco in China have shown any interest in smoking tobacco, mainly due to the much higher profit margins of cigarettes and cigars than smoking tobacco.

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period it is expected that smoking tobacco in China will remain negligible and fragmented, mainly due to the growing popularity and availability of cigarettes, which are widely considered to be far more convenient and enjoy a larger consumer base.

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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