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Economy, Finance and Trade: Poland

March 2021

The Polish economy witnessed a modest contraction compared to other European Union (EU) countries over 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 2021, the country is forecast to recover rapidly, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, easing containment measures, and resurging foreign trade. However, an expected increase in the unemployment rate is set to constrain private consumption growth in the first half of 2021. Real output is expected to return to pre-crisis levels in 2022.

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Overview:

The Country Briefings series examine market potential, economic and consumer trends impacting each country and how they are set to change.

Each Country Briefing covers one of these topics:

Economy, Finance and Trade: Understanding the structure, health and potential risks of an economy are important for decision-making within an existing operating environment as well as for expansion strategies. Real GDP growth, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations will directly impact consumer market potential. Import and export trade profiles help gauge how open an economy is to trade and investment, while analysis of government finances can be used to explore macroeconomic stability and susceptibility to economic shocks.

Income and Expenditure: Insights into income, wealth and expenditure of consumers are vital in helping businesses make strategic decisions with regards to which country (or even which region within a country) to enter, which consumer segment to target, which products or services to market, and at which price point. Other factors such as the size and expansion of the middle class and income inequality are also important in helping companies gauge the potential of a country market.

Households: Global shifts in gender, ageing, migration and housing are transforming the size, location,  general make-up as well as income and expenditure of households around the globe, with diverse implications for governments and companies. Households insights can help identify the decision-making processes and consumption tastes of different household groups and types within a country, and assess household appliance and digital readiness that is key for formulating market technology and internet strategies.

Business Dynamics: A stable and competitive business environment is vital to operate efficiently and attract inward investment. Businesses can assess these factors alongside challenges such as corruption, political instability and terrorism, also gain insight into business operating environment and make strategic investment decisions. Transport infrastructure, ICT readiness and labour force dynamics will also identify potential issues with a supply chain and the level of workforce skills.

Sustainability: Insights on key sectors directly related to the environmental sustainability of a country such as energy, water, pollution, environmental resilience, forest and biodiversity and food and agriculture help businesses to make strategic decisions in relation to environmental and sustainability trends, improve brand reputation and ensure long-term operations while ultimately growing the bottom line.

The briefings cover 103 countries and identify topics of crucial interest to planners, marketers and researchers.

Economy, Finance and Trade: Poland

HEADLINES

PROSPECTS

The economy is anticipated to witness robust recovery in 2021
Monetary policy stance is expected to remain largely expansionary in 2021
Trade is set to rebound strongly over 2021-2022
Poland among the most attractive countries in Eastern Europe in terms of FDI
Public debt levels are anticipated to stabilise over the medium term

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

Chart 1 Economic Landscape of Poland: 2020 Chart 2 Real GDP Growth in Poland: 2010-2040 Chart 3 GDP Size and Growth: 2015-2040 Chart 4 Gross Value Added by Sector in Poland: 2020 Chart 5 Domestic Demand: 2015 and 2020 Chart 6 Standartised Business Confidence Index: 2010-2021 Chart 7 Standartised Consumer Confidence Index: 2010-2021 Chart 8 Productivity: 2015 and 2020 Chart 9 Productivity by Sector in Poland: 2020

MONETARY INDICATORS

Chart 10 Monetary Landscape of Poland: 2020 Chart 11 Inflation: 2010-2040 Chart 12 Average Inflation: 2010-2040 Chart 13 Interest Rates in Poland: 2010-2021 Chart 14 Exchange Rates: 2010-2020 Chart 15 Money Supply Growth and Money Velocity in Poland: 2015-2021

FOREIGN TRADE

Chart 16 Foreign Trade Landscape of Poland: 2020 Chart 17 Exports and Export Price Index in Poland: 2014-2021 Chart 18 Exports by Commodity in Poland: 2020 Chart 19 Top 10 Export Destinations: 2020 Chart 20 Imports and Import Price Index in Poland: 2014-2021 Chart 21 Imports by Commodity in Poland: 2020 Chart 22 Top 10 Import Origins: 2020

INVESTMENTS

Chart 23 Investment Landscape of Poland: 2020 Chart 24 FDI intensity: 2019 Chart 25 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Outflows in Poland: 2014-2019 Chart 26 Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Poland: 2010-2021

GOVERNMENT FINANCE

Chart 27 Government Budget Landscape of Poland: 2020 Chart 28 Public Debt: 2020 Chart 29 Government Revenue: 2020 Chart 30 Government Expenditure: 2020 Chart 31 Government Expenditure by Economic Type in Poland: 2020 Chart 32 Government Expenditure by Function in Poland: 2020

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

Chart 33 Top 2 Biggest Global Risks vs. Baseline Scenario: Poland
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