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Tobacco Forecast Model Walkthrough

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Shane MacGuill Bio

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The tobacco and nicotine market is changing rapidly and the environment in which it operates is more turbulent than ever. Euromonitor is delighted to introduce a new tool, the Tobacco Forecast Model, that can assist in plotting a course through this disruption and navigate future market evolution.

The Tobacco Forecast Model has been developed using our proprietary analytics capabilities and expertise and provides a unique, multipronged means of assessing the tobacco and nicotine market. It is made of four separate elements – all Passport Tobacco clients will get access to the first of these, the Overview tab; the other three tabs are accessible only as part of a separate paid access to the tool.

Overview showcases model output by geography and category

The dashboard is updated three times a year, twice with a model-led update and once with a hybrid, researched/modelled approach.

The Overview tab shows the output of these various updates, how they change the view from the baseline research and forecasting done in May of every year, and what that means ultimately for volumes in the cigarettes or the other categories covered by the model. Data can be accessed at global, regional or market level across volume or value to understand exactly which markets are driving changes in forecast for each quarter.

Tobacco Forecast Model Walkthrough Chart 1Growth Decomposition enables deep dive into key drivers of model output

Where the Overview tab displays the output of the analytical and research review process, Growth Decomposition goes under the hood of the model and enables a granular analysis of which drivers are influencing the forecasts produced by the model.

These drivers include purely modelled indicators such as GDP, product price (and price of potential substitutes), habit persistence, population, demographics, socioeconomic measures (such as levels of unemployment) and market environment (such as retail landscape and access to e-commerce). In the case of tobacco, this latter bucket also incorporates regulation in the form of the M-Power metrics.

However, the model also goes a step further and considers a collection of what are called “soft drivers” dictated by Euromonitor’s country experts which range across promotional activity, new product or segment launches, and specific regulatory developments in that market.

The Growth Decomposition tab allows the user to understand the mix of impact of each driver for each market and category combination but also the importance of each individual driver over time.

Tobacco Forecast Model Chart 2

Market Potential can support market prioritisation for newer nicotine categories

Market Potential highlights an element of the model which assesses the growth and size of a category in a particular market and benchmarks against growth and size of that category in other comparable markets to indicate whether it is over/underindexed in terms of overall achievable value.

Within the tobacco context, this is likely to be particularly valuable when looking at new and rapidly emerging categories such as nicotine pouches and making decisions on market entry and where to apply resources and capital.
Tobacco Model Walkthrough Chart 3

Scenarios gives an evolving view of how macro changes may impact tobacco and nicotine

Finally, the Scenarios module provides the user with the opportunity to filter the model outputs through a range of pre-selected macroeconomic scenarios. These macro scenarios are refreshed on a regular basis but currently include global stagflation, certain pandemic-related outcomes, a China hard landing and a more severe US-China trade war.

Tobacco Forecast Model WalkthroughFor further information or to request a demo please contact your Euromonitor account representative or e-mail shane.macguill@euromonitor.com.

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